USD/TRY: a new pair on my radar

The USD/TRY has recently come on to my radar. I Tweeted last night to watch the 30 min chart of this pair for any triangle breakout and this move triggered during the late Europe/US session to the tune of 700 pips. The spreads can be rather large but the size of the moves makes this pair, IMHO, worth considering.

USD/TRY weekly: The Turkish Lira has been steadily weakening over recent years but the pace of decline has accelerated since October. This weakness has alarmed the Turkish President and on Friday he was reported as calling on citizens to help support the currency. Thus, there could be a lot more movement to come on this particular pair.

The USD/TRY is currently forming up its first bearish weekly candle in 6 weeks. Any bearish weekly candle close at this key 3.50 resistance level will be worth noting as it would suggest that there could be a pause with this recent rally. The 3.10 level had been respected resistance for 15 months until the October breakout and, since then, the increase has been essentially exponential. Trends do not travel in straight lines forever though and so some pause, or even pullback, would not surprise here. I note that the default Elliott setting on my charting software suggests a move back to test this key 3.10 level:

USD/TRY daily: Placing Fibonacci retracement levels on the last major swing-high move here might help to identify pullback targets. The 61.8% fib level is a popular target and it is worth noting that this ties in with the previous S/R level of 3.10. Major S/R levels are often tested following a breakout and so a pullback to test this 3.10 level would not surprise. Note how the daily 200 EMA isn’t too far away either!

USD/TRY 4hr: I note that a 4hr chart triangle has recently been broken and a new TC SHORT signal is trying to form here. The 3.40 level looks to be recent S/R too so would be a potential support level to watch here as well: