Themes for the Week and Potential Opportunities
– US policymakers are quite positive in their assessment of the economy and that is how we closed on Friday.
– This week remember that on Friday EU leaders meet without the UK.
– Watch out for the OPEC Oil Market Report (Mon), and the IEA Report (Tue).
GBP: BoE is npt expected to change anything this week, but it will be an intense week for the Pound. The labour marketdata (Wed) is expected robust. We also have inflation (Tue) expected higher, although retail sales (Thu) may disappoint based on BRC data.
USD: Fedspeak will continue this week but of more interest is a plethora of data: retail sales (Thu) and CPI inflation (Fri). The former in particular will be watched for signs that consumer spending will continue to drive growth.
CNY: industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment (all Tue) will give further indications of whether the slowdown in China’s economy is bottoming out.
AUD: also in focus. Employment data is on tap, along with speeches from a number of Australian policymakers. The market expects a relatively robust gain of 15K new jobs on top of the 27K new jobs generated in July, but according to the latest PMI readings, employment conditions are actually worse. Earlier in the week we get the regular surveys from NAB on Tuesday and WestPac on Wednesday, while RBA speakers scheduled are Kent on Tuesday, Debelle and Richards on Wednesday.
My initial watchlist for the week is made up of Nasdaq (short), GbpAud (long) and EurAud (Long).