Weekly Game Plan 13.2.17

Going into this week, markets will need to digest the apparently benign outcome of the Trump/Abe meeting and, more importantly, FED President Fischer’s “Significant Uncertainty” statement.

USD: Fed Chair Yellen delivers her semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Panel (Tue) and the House Financial Services Committee (Wed). Whether the Fed will evaluate incoming data “over coming months” or not will be carefully watched to reaffirm that the Fed is on hold until June or whether the scenario has changed. Retail sales (Wed) could dip. CPI (Wed) will also be quite influential. Other macro reports will concentrate upon the industrial sector: Empire State (Wed), Philly Fed (Thur), industrial production (Wed) and producer prices (Tue).

Finally, 5 regional Fed Presidents also speak during the week including voters (Harker, Kaplan) alternates (Lacker, Lockhart) and a nonvoting FOMC member (Rosengren).

EUR: Ger & EU GDP (Tue) are scheduled for release along with EU trade and current account, as well as Ger ZEW (Tue) and CPI. But politics should be more influential as French politics takes center stage & the odds of outsider Marine Le Pen (far-right candidate) are very similar to those of Trump or Brexit. Greece is also back in the headlines

GBP: Busy week for the Pound as well. CPI (Tue) should rise, but unemployment data (Wed) should be more influential based on Carney’s latest statement. Finally Retail Sales (Thur) are expected to rise.

CAD:   PMTrudeau will meet US President Trump in Washington (Mon) regarding NAFTA & risks will likely be dovish in terms of potential market influences. Manufacturing sales (Wed) probably slowed also. We also have a decent amount of earnings releases in Canada so the risks to the Loonie are mostly external.

Asia: The global “reflation” theme will be under scrutiny early Tuesday as China reports CPI (expected higher). Japanese GDP will likely disappoint.

For Australia, we have the Unemployment report (Thur) and for Nzd we have Retail sales (Thur).

Going into the week, Aud remains clearly bid against Eur, Nzd, Jpy. Dow, Silver & Copper are also behaving well for now. Things will get interesting after Yellen’s testimony as we might (finally) get the next move in the USD.

Good Luck!

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