Themes for the week and potential opportunities
USD: Jackson Hole will be the main event this week. The 3-day meeting starts on Thursday, but FED’s Yellen will be the main focus on Friday. The market is discounting a 22% probability of a hike in September. If Yellen is going to raise rates, she will definitely drop hints on Friday although recent data basically rules out a September (and even November) hike.
EUR: basically the only other data of interest beyond Jackson Hole. We have Flash PMIs (Tue), Ger IFO (Thur) which are expected positive.
Going into the week, it looks like Gbp and Usd weakness along with Euro and Jpy strength are the most evident plays out there. Crude is evidently strong (but expect a pullback) and equities are consolidating at/near highs.