Going into the week, take note of some significant comments from Fed voter Dudley. Some of the previously dovish Fed voters were started to become concerned about falling behind the inflation curve (positive for USD if market obliges). The GBP will likely remain slightly pressured ahead of Wednesday when UK PM May triggers article 50. Expect a buy rumour/sell fact sort of reaction. Finally, recall that conditions might be tricky as we are approaching Quarter end & month end.
USD: Plenty of key US data this week with CB Consumer Confidence (Tue), Final GDP (Thur), PCE & Chicago PMI (Fri). A number of Federal Reserve Presidents are also due to speak so traders need to pay attention to any market moving comments.
EUR: Fairly quiet week for EZ data with only Ger IFO (Mon), Ger CPI (Thur), Ger Retail Sales & Unemployment (Fri), EU CPI (Fri).
GBP: U.K. Prime Minister May expected to trigger Article 50 in the next few days, formalizing the U.K.’s divorce from the European Union. UK data in the week ahead includes Final GDP, Nationwide House Prices and Current Account – all out on Friday.
CAD: Strong retail sales on Friday will likely improve the BoC’s outlook. GDP is the only influential data print (Fri) along with a speech from BoC’s Poloz on Tuesday.
Asia: Japanese data in the week ahead includes Retail Sales (Wed) then CPI, unemployment, IP, Construction Orders and Housing Starts (all on Fri).
China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI will be released on Friday.
I expect things to be shaken up, but for now at least I remain bearish on comm-dolls vs. Eur, Gbp, Jpy. Dax is the best looking index.