Reminder: this week is full of event risks including the FOMC meeting, top tier data, and earnings. Due to the Chinese New Year, Monday is a Holiday in Singapore, China & Hong Kong.
USD: FOMC meeting (Wed) to be “boring” until Trump’s policies become clearer. The markets will be looking towards the Minutes more than the acutal meeting (no hike is expected). Regarding data, we have NFP (Fri) of course, and before that look out for ISM Manufacturing (Wed), ISM Services (Fri) and Factory Orders (Fri) with less important Incomes, Consumer Spending and PCE deflator (Mon).
EUR: Ger CPI and Confidence measures will be the highlight on Monday, while EU CPI will be released on Tuesday alongside Ger Unemployment and EU GBP.
GBP: The BOE (Thur) is expected to stand pat, but the Inflation Report should be more interesting and print a bullish picture, underpinned by more upbeat growth and unemployment forecasts. Consumer confidence (Tue) and business surveys – including the PMIs (Wed-Fri), top things off.
CAD: Externalities will be more influential this week, if we exclude Q4 GDP (Tue) and a speech by Poloz the same day at the University of Alberta. It may carry dovish implications if he repeats that a cut is on the table.
Asia: The main focus will be on BOJ (Tue) and some analysts say the BOJ might prepare markets for raising it’s yield target. Beyond that, we have Chinese PMIs (Tue/Thur).
Once again we can expect a tricky week with all the risk events. Running positions might prove challenging. Into the week, equities remain evidently strong as does Copper. There seems to be value in the Kiwi, especiall vs. Euro, Jpy and Aud but it remains to be seen how much continuation we will see.
Good Luck!
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