Expect September lift-off even if August payrolls come in soft, says Citi Economics. We anticipate just 190k for NFP. This is based on regular seasonal patterns – August and September tend to be the weakest months. We anticipate a sizable increase of 0.3 percent in August, holding the year-to-year rate at 2.1 percent. We look for no change in the unemployment rate at 5.3%.
Big picture, in our view, there is no question that the labor market has improved markedly in the past year. It continues to do so, regardless of the headline August payroll print. Employment has expanded by an average of 243k per month.
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