Wild cards: not only at the tennis!

The US Open Tennis is on at the moment and borrowing ‘wild card’ from their vernacular to bring to the trading community seems rather appropriate, especially give the trading ‘wild card’ is US in origin. Global markets are poised ahead of next week’s FOMC, waiting to see whether a US interest rate hike will make ‘an appearance’ at the Fed’s September meeting. This ‘interest rate’ wild card is triggering all sorts of gyrations across global stock markets and still making FX cross pairs slightly more appealing.

Some second-tier US jobs data came in better than expected which reminded traders about a potential US interest rate rise and resulted in a US stock sell off. There was a great 30 min trend trade possible on the S&P500 following this trigger item as the chart below reveals. I wrote an article questioning wehether we had seen the last of any stock market pull back and how next week’s FOMC could be a trigger for further movement. This article can be found through the following link:


USDX weekly: despite thoughts of an interest rate hike the US$ is still lower for the week and remains range-bound:


EURX weekly: this is slightly higher but also range bound:


Forex: there is AUD Employment and Chinese CPI data during the Asian session and then BoE Interest Rate news after that.

E/U 4hr: not doing too much in the lead up to next week’s FOMC:


E/U weekly: remember this is rather range-bound too:


E/J 4hr: this cross pair has been one of the better trades this week and, whilst already giving over 200 pips, continues limping along a bit higher. I’m still looking for a possible test of the congested 61.8% fib region:


E/J 4hr Cloud: this move would have been a decent TC signal except for the fact that price has been under the 4hr Cloud:


A/U 4hr: this dipped in sympathy with the RBNZ rate cut but watch for any reaction to AUD Unemployment data due out later today:


GBP/USD: this has stalled ahead of tonight’s BoE rate release:


Kiwi 4hr: this Bear Flag has got going now following the RBNZ rate cut. The only ‘wild card’ here could be if the Fed don’t lift rates at next week’s meeting and the US$ pulls back as this would help to support the Kiwi:


U/J 4hr: a bit rudder-less in the wait for FOMC:


GBP/JPY 4hr: pulling back to the magnet of 184. This is a HUGE S/R zone for this pair. An ‘inverse H&S’ could evolve here if 184 is tested again and then holds:


Loonie 4hr: bouncing up within the triangle following the BoC rate cut:


GBP/AUD: choppy ahead of today’s AUD and GBP data:


GBP/AUD monthly: remember I was looking for a test of 2.07 but now thinking a move up to the monthly 61.8% fib might be more of the go here now:


GBP/NZD 4hr: the RBNZ rate cut has helped to lift this pair back up to test the major monthly chart bear trend line. Watch for any reaction to tonight’s BoE rate release to see if this triggers a breakout at all:


GBP/NZD daily: rather squeezed here now on the daily chart:


GBP/NZD monthly: this is a major Bear trend line. (the trend line is actually just above price action but parallax error here makes it seem otherwise):


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