From the FXWW Chatroom: ICM polls shows leave campaign on 43% and IN campaign on 41%. Paddy Power shortened Brexit odds to 13/8 from 2/1 on Monday and 9/4 a week ago. Reuters pointed out that GBP/USD three-month implied volatility had risen 20 pct today, the biggest one-day move since 2001 with 3mths now covering 23rd June referendum poll. O/N GBP/USD for the referendum is somewhere around 100 vols and also for the records 6m RR trades 4.1 GBP Puts, which is the most its been since Bloomberg’s records began with 3mth ATM now at 14.60% is multi year highs back to 2010. Certainly have always felt that the bookies are underestimating the support for the out campaign.
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