7 July: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors: FXCharts

I am short of time today so there is no commodities outlook. As with everything else – wait for the NFP figure for guidance

EURUSD: 1.1422
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bullish
  • Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Possibly prefer to buy dips.
Preferred 24-hour Strategy:  Neutral ahead of the NFP although the longer term indicators are looking more constructive for the Euro, so potentially looking to buy dips may be the plan..Minor support lies at 1.1400 and then at 1.1350/55 below which could see a return to 1.1320/30 and possibly to 1300/10. Below here may see a move to 1.1280 and possibly to 1.1260, but buying dips still seems to be the plan given the positive look of the longer term momentum indicators. If wrong, below 1.1260 could then see a slide towards 1.1235

The Euro is currently at session highs of 1.1424, and a break of the 3 July high of 1.1426 would then target 1.1445/50. Beyond this would then open the way to the May 2016 high of 1.1616, and although this seems rather unlikely for a while to come the longer term indicators do hint that we may eventually get there.  Wait for the NFP to find out.

Resistance Support
1.1530 Minor 1.1400 Minor
1.1500 Minor 1.1355 200 HMA
1.1480 Minor 1.1320 (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1445)
1.1445 Descending trend resistance/29 June high/29 June high 1.1311 5 July low
1.1423/26 Session high/3 July high 1.1285 (50% of 1.1117/1.1445)

Economic data highlights will include:

German Industrial Production, US Unemployment//NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data, Fed Monetary Policy  Report


USDJPY: 113.18
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bullish
  • Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Jpy has traded a 3rd day in a row confined between a broad 112.80/113.50 range and this looks likely to cover it until the NFP are released.The short term momentum indicators are beginning to look a bit heavy to me and we may see a drift lower, and below 112.80 could see a sharper fall towards 112.50, and possibly to 112.00 although it will take a poor NFP outcome to see it down here.  The daily charts though, still remain positive so buying dips remains the overall game-plan and if we can take out 113.70 we may see a move towards 114.00 and eventually higher.
Resistance Support
114.35 10 May high 112.88/82 Session low/5 July low
114.00 Minor 112.73 4 July low
113.85 15 May high 112.52 (23.6% of 108.80/113.68)
113.68 5 July high 112.35 200 HMA
113.46 Session high 112.05 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Coincident Index, Leading Economic Index


GBPUSD: 1.2968
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bullish
  • Upcoming market moving events: BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech, NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bullish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Cable moved higher, in line with the Euro on Thursday, reaching 1.2983 and closing near the highs.The momentum indicators are mixed, with the short term charts telling us little and a tight range is likely ahead of the US jobs data although UK data may provide some volatility. As before, the downside would again find support at 1.2910 (Daily cloud top) and the 5 July low of 1.2893, but below which could run to 1.2860.

On the topside, sellers will be seen at 1.3000 and at the trend high of 1.3047. Beyond there would take a look at the long term triangle top at 1.3060, which should be strong resistance if we see it. If 1.3060 is taken out look for an acceleration towards 1.3120 and then possibly on towards 1.3300.

Resistance Support
1.3060 Descending trend resistance 1.2919 Session low
1.3047 18 May high 1.2910 Daily cloud top
1.3022 3 July high 1.2892 5 July low
1.3000 Pivot 1.2860 (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3029)
1.2983 Session high 1.2810 (50% of 1.2588/1.3029)

Economic data highlights will include:

Manufacturing/Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Goods Trade Balance


USDCHF: 0.9605
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf is a little lower today but is holding on above the previous support at 0.9600, after a range of 0.9602/0.9659.The short term momentum indicators mixed, possibly pointing a little lower, and if 0.9600 is taken out there is not too much to hold it up until 0.9550 and then 0.9535.

On the topside, decent resistance now lies in the band between 0.9660/85, above which could take us on to 0.9700 and then to 0.9745 although I don’t see it up here today unless the NFP is stellar.

Resistance Support
0.9745 Descending trend resistance 0.9603 Session low
0.9700 Minor 0.9585 Minor
0.9680/87 (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9555)/5 July high 0.9555/52 3 July low/29 June low
0.9660 Session high 0.9535 18 Aug low
0.9625 200 HMA 0.9521 23 June 2016 low


AUDUSD: 0.7582
  • Short term momentum indicators: Mildly Bearish
  • Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bearish
  • Upcoming market moving events: Construction PMI, NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral –Turning slightly bearish
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Aud remains under pressure on Friday currently trading at session lows around 0.7580.Further downside looks quite possible, and with the momentum indicators looking increasingly heavy , selling rallies seems to be the plan, with a SL placed above 0.7650. The week’s low has been 0.7570, and if 0.7565/70 is taken out we may be in for a move towards 0.7540 and possibly to 0.7520.

On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.7615 and at 0.7630. Keep stops above 0.7650.

Resistance Support
0.7700 Pivot 0.7570 5 July low
0.7685 Minor 0.7565 (38.2% of 0.7328/0.7710)
0.7650 Minor 0.7540 (50% pivot of 0.7373/0.7710)
0.7631 5 July high 0.7520 (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.7710)
0.7614 Session high 0.7500 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

AIG Construction PMI, China Foreign Exchange Reserves


NZDUSD: 0.7273
  • Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
  • Daily momentum indicators: Possible topping formation.
  • Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: A neutral stance is required while the Kiwi remains near the 0.7300 pivot.The Kiwi still seems to be building a topping formation although the price action is very choppy and difficult to get a handle on. As before, I prefer to sell rallies towards/above 0.7300, with a SL placed above 0.7350.
                                         Resistance             Support
0.7402 8 Nov high 0.7260 Minor
0.7360 Minor 0.7243 Session low
0.7344/45 3 July high/29 June high 0.7235 Minor
0.7325 Minor 0.7220 (23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343)
0.7296/98 5 July high/4 July high 0.7193 22 June low

By | July 7, 2017
Source: FXCharts

Leave a Reply