I am short of time today so there is no commodities outlook. As with everything else – wait for the NFP figure for guidance
EURUSD: 1.1422 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bullish
- Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Possibly prefer to buy dips. | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral ahead of the NFP although the longer term indicators are looking more constructive for the Euro, so potentially looking to buy dips may be the plan..Minor support lies at 1.1400 and then at 1.1350/55 below which could see a return to 1.1320/30 and possibly to 1300/10. Below here may see a move to 1.1280 and possibly to 1.1260, but buying dips still seems to be the plan given the positive look of the longer term momentum indicators. If wrong, below 1.1260 could then see a slide towards 1.1235
The Euro is currently at session highs of 1.1424, and a break of the 3 July high of 1.1426 would then target 1.1445/50. Beyond this would then open the way to the May 2016 high of 1.1616, and although this seems rather unlikely for a while to come the longer term indicators do hint that we may eventually get there. Wait for the NFP to find out. |
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Resistance | Support | ||
1.1530 | Minor | 1.1400 | Minor |
1.1500 | Minor | 1.1355 | 200 HMA |
1.1480 | Minor | 1.1320 | (38.2% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
1.1445 | Descending trend resistance/29 June high/29 June high | 1.1311 | 5 July low |
1.1423/26 | Session high/3 July high | 1.1285 | (50% of 1.1117/1.1445) |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Industrial Production, US Unemployment//NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data, Fed Monetary Policy Report
USDJPY: 113.18 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bullish
- Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Jpy has traded a 3rd day in a row confined between a broad 112.80/113.50 range and this looks likely to cover it until the NFP are released.The short term momentum indicators are beginning to look a bit heavy to me and we may see a drift lower, and below 112.80 could see a sharper fall towards 112.50, and possibly to 112.00 although it will take a poor NFP outcome to see it down here. The daily charts though, still remain positive so buying dips remains the overall game-plan and if we can take out 113.70 we may see a move towards 114.00 and eventually higher. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
114.35 | 10 May high | 112.88/82 | Session low/5 July low |
114.00 | Minor | 112.73 | 4 July low |
113.85 | 15 May high | 112.52 | (23.6% of 108.80/113.68) |
113.68 | 5 July high | 112.35 | 200 HMA |
113.46 | Session high | 112.05 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
Coincident Index, Leading Economic Index
GBPUSD: 1.2968 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bullish
- Upcoming market moving events: BOE Governor, Mark Carney Speech, NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Cable moved higher, in line with the Euro on Thursday, reaching 1.2983 and closing near the highs.The momentum indicators are mixed, with the short term charts telling us little and a tight range is likely ahead of the US jobs data although UK data may provide some volatility. As before, the downside would again find support at 1.2910 (Daily cloud top) and the 5 July low of 1.2893, but below which could run to 1.2860.
On the topside, sellers will be seen at 1.3000 and at the trend high of 1.3047. Beyond there would take a look at the long term triangle top at 1.3060, which should be strong resistance if we see it. If 1.3060 is taken out look for an acceleration towards 1.3120 and then possibly on towards 1.3300. |
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Resistance | Support | ||
1.3060 | Descending trend resistance | 1.2919 | Session low |
1.3047 | 18 May high | 1.2910 | Daily cloud top |
1.3022 | 3 July high | 1.2892 | 5 July low |
1.3000 | Pivot | 1.2860 | (38.2% of 1.2588/1.3029) |
1.2983 | Session high | 1.2810 | (50% of 1.2588/1.3029) |
Economic data highlights will include:
Manufacturing/Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Goods Trade Balance
USDCHF: 0.9605 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: US$Chf is a little lower today but is holding on above the previous support at 0.9600, after a range of 0.9602/0.9659.The short term momentum indicators mixed, possibly pointing a little lower, and if 0.9600 is taken out there is not too much to hold it up until 0.9550 and then 0.9535.
On the topside, decent resistance now lies in the band between 0.9660/85, above which could take us on to 0.9700 and then to 0.9745 although I don’t see it up here today unless the NFP is stellar. |
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Resistance | Support | ||
0.9745 | Descending trend resistance | 0.9603 | Session low |
0.9700 | Minor | 0.9585 | Minor |
0.9680/87 | (23.6% of 1.0099/0.9555)/5 July high | 0.9555/52 | 3 July low/29 June low |
0.9660 | Session high | 0.9535 | 18 Aug low |
0.9625 | 200 HMA | 0.9521 | 23 June 2016 low |
AUDUSD: 0.7582 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Mildly Bearish
- Daily momentum indicators: Mildly Bearish
- Upcoming market moving events: Construction PMI, NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral –Turning slightly bearish | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Aud remains under pressure on Friday currently trading at session lows around 0.7580.Further downside looks quite possible, and with the momentum indicators looking increasingly heavy , selling rallies seems to be the plan, with a SL placed above 0.7650. The week’s low has been 0.7570, and if 0.7565/70 is taken out we may be in for a move towards 0.7540 and possibly to 0.7520.
On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.7615 and at 0.7630. Keep stops above 0.7650. |
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Resistance | Support | ||
0.7700 | Pivot | 0.7570 | 5 July low |
0.7685 | Minor | 0.7565 | (38.2% of 0.7328/0.7710) |
0.7650 | Minor | 0.7540 | (50% pivot of 0.7373/0.7710) |
0.7631 | 5 July high | 0.7520 | (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.7710) |
0.7614 | Session high | 0.7500 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
AIG Construction PMI, China Foreign Exchange Reserves
NZDUSD: 0.7273 |
- Short term momentum indicators: Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Possible topping formation.
- Upcoming market moving events: NFP
24 Hour Outlook: Prefer to sell rallies | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: A neutral stance is required while the Kiwi remains near the 0.7300 pivot.The Kiwi still seems to be building a topping formation although the price action is very choppy and difficult to get a handle on. As before, I prefer to sell rallies towards/above 0.7300, with a SL placed above 0.7350. | |||
Resistance | Support | ||
0.7402 | 8 Nov high | 0.7260 | Minor |
0.7360 | Minor | 0.7243 | Session low |
0.7344/45 | 3 July high/29 June high | 0.7235 | Minor |
0.7325 | Minor | 0.7220 | (23.6% of 0.6816/0.7343) |
0.7296/98 | 5 July high/4 July high | 0.7193 | 22 June low |