I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The BOE has backtracked on the expectations it gave the market that was going to raise rates sooner rather than later. Technically, we are sitting at support but unless we get a bullish reversal formation the strategy is to keep selling.
- Buy USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. We seem to have found some support around 122.50 and with the uptrend intact we want to stay with the long approach. Note that as the MT is showing signs it is about to turn sideways, the safer buy will be at 121.00.
- Short AUD/USD. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. We have bearish reversal pattern in play and look for a technical move back towards the .70 level. The RBA is likely to keep rates on hold until the new year, when we may see further cuts.
- Sell EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The ECB is likely to cut rates this week and it is likely they will use aggressive language. This should continue to push the pair lower towards the 1.0460 low.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is bear normal. Resistance at 66 cents seems stiff, but the market type has switched to sideways and we are mid range so we trade with caution. 4 hours charts are forming a head and shoulders bottom, so that is something to be wary of.
- Buy USD/CHF. Trend– MT is bull normal. We closed above January’s high and if the ECB cuts rates we are likely to see the SNB follow suit. Continue to buy.
- Buy EUR/CHF. Breakout – MT is bull normal. We have flipped back into a bull normal MT. Long-term, excepting a market crash, we expect the pair to move back towards 1.20. But no need to rush to buy the pair will likely chop around giving plenty of opportunities to buy. A buy the dip strategy is appropriate.
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. A bullish engulfing candle to close out the week negates what looked like deteriorating technical conditions. Will be a busy week for Canadian data, with the BOC likely to keep rates on hold. Oil has rejected an upside attempt and fundamentally a glut of supply keeps the pressure on the price.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. Some bottoming signs in play, so be careful of a reversal. Continue short, or look to sell around the .71 level.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Reversal – MT is bull normal. But we had the anticipated reversal and the formation of a weekly pin candle off a key level so look short.
- Waiting NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for the break before entering.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now, though a reversal here presents a buying opportunity.
- Sell EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue short.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Remains a low conviction short, with the momentum from the breakout not strong.
- Buy AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy but with lots of caution as AUD showing signs of technical weakness on the crosses.
- Sell EUR/AUD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/AUD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell but with a healthy deal of caution as support is holding for now.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is fast bull. Formation of a weekly pin candle suggests downside but not off a key level so wait for things to play out.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. MT turned sideways as anticipated so wait for now.
- Waiting NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. We had the anticipated breakout and are now holding below the key 120 level.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Waiting CAD/CHF. – MT is bull normal. But a daily pin candle suggests caution.
- Buy NZD/CHF. Breakout – MT is bull normal. A breakout into a bull normal MT suggests a long strategy is appropriate. Be careful of the doji formed on Friday in-case we shift back into a sideways MT.
- Buy AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, though a doji suggests we may see a bit of a pull-back here.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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