There was a surprising amount of FX movement on Monday given the lack of economic data and my TC signal and trend line breakout trade strategy captured a lot of this, in fact, there were 7 breakout trades with new TC signals! There is a fair bit of economic data ahead today with ECB Draghi, BoE Gov Carney, RBA Assistant Gov Dobelle and Fed Chair Yellen speeches as well as the GBP Financial Stability Report so watch trend lines of relevant currency pairs for any reaction.
USDX: this is still below weekly Cloud resistance but watch to see if the Fed Chair Yellen speech might alter things here:
Trend line breakout + new TC signals: each of the following trend line breakout trades triggered with new TC signals off the 15 min charts. This is what I refer to as the ‘Optimal’ type of TC trade and one being perfected by some of the TC Trial participants. One member reported a gain of 571 pips from last week with 19 trades: 11 wins and 8 losses but the excellent Risk/Reward trading that was exercised allowed for an excellent pip haul. The TC Trial is half way through at this point and most participants have finally got the hang of the system. Those doing well have exercised great focus and commitment to the TC system but some have struggled to follow the TC trading rules and to stick to trading just one system. It has been a very enlightening exercise for me to watch these different traders and their approach to trading and, then, to monitor their trading outcomes. There is a clear pattern for achieving trading success that is emerging from this Trial!
USD/CNH: this gave 160 pips and note the great 15 min chart TC signal here for a trade worth up to 7R!
Gold: this gave 170 pips and note the great 15 min chart TC signal here that triggered prior to the big plunge for a trade of over 4R. I have revised the 4hr chart trend lines and this is at the bottom of this cluster of Gold charts:
Gold 15 min: note how the TC signal triggered prior to the trend line break and big move lower for a trade worth over 4R:
Gold 4hr: revised 4hr trend lines:
EUR/JPY: this move has continued on from last week’s trend line breakout for 65 pips:
AUD/USD: note a huge move but watch the 0.76 level now for any make or break. This gave a choppy 15 min TC signal:
AUD/JPY: this gave 60 pips and note the great 15 min chart TC signal here for a trade worth up to 6R!
USD/JPY: this also gave 60 pips and note the great 15 min chart TC signal here for a trade worth up to 6R!
USD/TRY: this gave 110 pips and note the 15 min chart TC signal here for a trade worth up to 2R! Note the revised 4hr chart trend lines here though now:
USD/MXN 15 min: not a trend line breakout trade BUT it did present with a TC signal that gave over 3 R. This is not a pair for the feint of heart though as note the size of the Stop that was needed!
DJIA 4hr: gave 90 points from the triangle breakout before reversing. Note the revised 4hr chart trend lines here now:
S&P500 4hr: gave 10 points from the triangle breakout but then reversed. Note the revised 4hr chart trend lines here now:
JP225 4hr: : gave 110 points from the triangle breakout and note how it paused at the daily chart’s bear trend line:
STOXX50 4hr: gave 35 points from the triangle breakout and not how price paused at the Flag trend line:
EUR/USD: this is still channel-bound and gave choppy TC 15 min chart signals. This is why I prefer to watch for TC signals that trigger with trend line breakouts or near trend line boundaries:
NZD/USD 4hr: holding up well but still under 0.73 S/R:
GBP/JPY 4hr: this gave a trend line breakout but without a clean-cut TC signal:
GBP/AUD 4hr: choppy still as I suggested in my w/e analysis and I’m wondering if this is more a Bear Flag??
GBP/NZD 4hr: choppy here too and I’ll watch for Bear Flag potential with this one as well:
EUR/AUD 4hr: a new small Flag in play here:
EUR/NZD 4hr: keep watch of the channel trend lines for any breakout:
Silver 4hr: watch the triangle trend lines for any breakout
Oil 4hr: watch trend lines here for any breakout: