Greece Outlook – FXWW Chatroom

EUR: Today is pay day for Greece: the government in Athens will need to transfer € 3.2 bn 
plus interest to the ECB. In addition, the bridge loan of a bit more than € 7 bn, which kept 
Greece afloat for a few weeks until the adoption of the third bailout package, is also due 
today. The ESM will pay out the first tranche today, as the Dutch parliament (which was the 
last to vote) adopted the € 86 bn package last night. This first tranche will enable the Greek 
government to make the payments mentioned above. Another € 10 bn will go to the bank 
rescue fund to recapitalise Greek banks. The FX markets appear to think that, now that 
Greece is receiving new support, all problems are over. In fact, they have been quite unconcerned 
about the Greek situation since the ink has dried on the third bailout package. But 
they should be. Not just now, but they should keep the issue in mind. It will resurface some 
time in the future, at the latest when the next tranche is due. Then, the Greek government 
will need to prove that it is implementing the harsh reforms which are part of the agreement. 
If it does not succeed – and that is indeed a possibility, seeing that the situation in the Greek 
parliament is quite difficult – the bargaining will start again. And even if the reforms are implemented, it is unclear whether there will be money for investments in the Greek economy 
after all debt service to the creditors is paid. For the moment, the FX markets can certainly 
put the Greek issue aside and focus on the Fed. But the Greek issue will resurface again 
and again and weigh on the euro. [Commerzbank] 

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