US$: not out of the woods yet: By Mary McNamara

The US$ is a bit higher again today but still faces some stiff resistance from the weekly 200 EMA. There have been a couple of new trend line breakouts but these aren’t too convincing just yet. I suspect that any US$ recovery above the weekly 200 EMA might impact broader FX momentum.

Data: watch today for USD Core Durable Goods, Crude Oil Inventories and a CAD BoC Gov Poloz speech. Remember the RBNZ rate update is in just 24hrs; early tomorrow morning.

USDX daily: now watch the weekly 200 EMA for any new make or break:

EURX weekly: still a Bull Flag for the time being:

Trend line breakouts:

USD/CNH: this breakout is now at 500 pips for the week. This pair also gave a great TC 15 min chart signal for over 7 R during the last session. This is the kind of trade I urge TC traders to watch out for; that is, a new TC signal emerging out of sideways markets and with a trend line breakout:

USD/CNH 4hr: now 500 pips for the week:

USD/CNH 15 min: there were two TC signals but waiting for the break of the more recent trend line would have been wise here and still allowed for an over 7 R trade!

EUR/JPY: still at 150 pips but I forgot yesterday to post the decent TC 15 min signal that came with this move:

EUR/JPY 4hr: still at 150 pips:

EUR/JPY 15 min: the great TC signal that came with this move:

EUR/USD: now at 120 pips and this gave a great 4 R TC signal in the European session. Any continued hold below 1.18 would suggest a deeper pullback, as per my weekend notes:

EUR/USD 4hr:

EUR/USD 15 min: there was a great TC 15 min signal here last session for 4R!

USD/TRY 4hr: still at 370:

GBP/AUD 4hr: a tepid breakout move but watch the major resistance zone above:

AUD/USD 4hr: this is just a weak move lower for 40 pips, for now that is!

NZD/USD 4hr: similar here but at 60 pips. Watch this 0.72 level with tomorrow’s RBNZ rate update:

Other Forex:

AUD/JPY 4hr:

GBP/USD 4hr:

USD/JPY 4hr: loking a bit like a Bull Flag as it sits below a weekly chart trend line:

GBP/JPY 4hr: still negotiating this major 150 level:

GBP/NZD 4hr:

EUR/AUD 4hr: the 1.50 remains a HUGE S/R zone here:

EUR/NZD 4hr: still consolidating:

AUD/NZD 4hr: revised trend lines here:

Commodities:

Gold 4hr: ditto:

Silver 4hr:

Oil 4hr: testing this major breakout zone so watch for any new big make or break:

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