AUDUSD: Aud firmer on improved risk sentiment, Fed outlook

AUD/USD: 0.7017
The Aud had a solid session, rising in Asia and then again in Europe & NY, assisted by the strength in stock markets and in commodities, where oil, iron-ore & copper all rallied, and it was not harmed at all by the diminishing likelihood of a Fed rate hike at next week’s meeting. December is now generally being eyed as the time for any move by the Fed.The RBA’s Lowe & Debelle both speak later so keep an eye on what they have to say. Also note what Chinese stocks are up to, although after a solid session yesterday, and also in the US markets today, the Chinese markets may be somewhat calmer.

The Aud has made it back above 0.7000, where the 4 hour charts did their work as we discussed yesterday, and is currently sitting up against the resistances offered by the spike low of 24 August at 0.7033 and the 200 HMA, currently at 0.7040. If these get taken out, as the 4 hour charts suggest will eventually happen, then look for further gains towards 0.7060 and to 0.7100. Beyond there, Fibo resistances lie at 0.7122 (23.6% of 0.7848/0.6900) and then at 0.7200 (23.6% of 0.8162/0.6900), where the major descending trend resistance also lies.

The downside will find bids at 0.7000 and then at 0.6970 (100 HMA), and  at 0.6950 ahead of 0.6900. As before, once back below 0.6900, there is little support until the April 2009 low at 0.6855, below which would then suggest a run towards 0.6773 (June 2004 low). A break of this would then open a black hole, in terms of support, until we reach the major Fibo support at around 0.6250 (76.4% of 0.4773/1.1082), which ties in with the lows seen in Feb 2009. Under here, we are then looking at our long term objective of the last 12 months at 0.6000, where the Head/Shoulder objective lies.

Economic data highlights will include:

WBC Consumer Confidence, Investment Home Lending.

Aud

 

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