The US$ is mixed following the better than expected US Q4 GDP although it has bade good gains against the Aud$, Nzd$ and the Jpy. The charts suggest that this can continue so I still like to be short both the Aud and the Kiwi although US$Jpy is now resting up against the converging 100 DMA /200 DMA so resistance should be strong. Being a Friday though, a late break higher in the US session would not really surprise.
Elsewhere, the Euro and Chf have been choppy, pushed around by better than expected German inflation data and the geo-political events going on elsewhere that initially pushed US$Chf lower, before a sharp bounce following the US data. Note that US$Chf broke below the 100 DMA and almost met the 200 DMA (0.9912) but the bounce has seen the pair recover to close above the 100 DMA (0.9957), which is a potentially bullish sign now that the weak longs have generally been stopped out.
Sterling looks a bit heavy in the short term but still seems to be a buy on dips, both against the US$ and also on the crosses.
From a fundamental point of view, the US data may begin to point to some upside risks for the US$. Market pricing for further rate hikes is very cautious at less than one interest rate hike in 2019 and could see a rush back into the dollar today if the upcoming US Personal Consumption/Expenditure data is strong later in the session.
The metals look increasingly heavy and I like t sell rallies, while US stocks are choppy, so best left alone although I think they may be topping out and we could see lower levels ahead.
As for WTI, it had a choppy day, using 57.00 as a pivot although it has still not taken out the trend high of 57.77 (22 Feb) and I suspect further sideways trade may lie ahead. As before, structurally, I still think that looking to buy near 54.00/50 with a SL near 53.00 may be a plan.
By March 1, 2019
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*Trade of the day: March 1, 2019; 6:30 AM(AET)
*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.
All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.
Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1300/1.1400 (SL 30 pips either side)
Range Trade: AudUsd @ 0.7150/0.7050. (SL 30 pips either side)
Sell EurGbp @ 0.86150. SL @ 0.8665, TP @ 0.8480
Sell Gold @ 1323. SL @ 1333, TP @ 1300
Buy GbpAud @ 1.8525. SL @ 1.1.8390, TP @ 1.8825
Buy WTI @ 54.25. SL @ 52.90, TP @ 57.00
