| EURUSD: 1.1740 |
| Preferred Strategy: It is all rather neutral at the start of Tuesday trade so a nimble stance is required. The dailies do still point lower although they need to see some directional move soon as they will otherwise run out of steam and then further choppy trade could be in store. Given the lack of data today, it could be another rangebound session while waiting on tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes. After that it will be a pretty lean data calendar until Friday’s CPI and Retail Sales reports, which will again be viewed through the hurricane effected conditions. No trade today. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish – Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1830 | (38.2% of 1.2092/1.1669) | 1.1718 | Session low |
| 1.1800 | Descending trend resistance | 1.1700 | Minor |
| 1.1785 | 4 Oct high | 1.1669 | 6 Oct low |
| 1.1770 | Minor | 1.1661 | 17 Aug low |
| 1.1755 | 200 HMA /Session high | 1.1612 | 26 July low |
Economic data highlights will include:
German Trade Balance, Current Account, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
…
| USDJPY: 112.66 |
| Preferred Strategy: The dollar remains rangebound within 112.32/112.74 today and similar conditions appear set to continue. As before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred although for the time being 112.00/113.00 looks set to cover it gain. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 113.55 | Minor | 112.40 | Minor |
| 113.43 | 6 Oct high | 112.32 | 4 Oct low/29 Sept low /Session low |
| 113.20 | Minor | 112.20 | 27 Sept low |
| 113.00 | Minor | 112.00 | (23.6% of 107.31/113.43) |
| 112.74 | Session high | 111.80 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
Trade Balance, Current Account
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3141 |
| Preferred Strategy: Cable has bounced from the 1.3075 low after the announcement that the inflation data had been underestimated, potentially bringing about a BOE rate hike in November. It has been up to 1.3183 and currently sits at 1.3150, and with the 4 hour charts looking positive, a retest of the highs would not surprise. The dailies though still point strongly lower so selling into strength would seem the medium term plan. Sell GbpUsd @ 1.3190. SL @ 1.3230, TP @ 1.3050. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.3174 | (23.6% of 1.3656/1.3026) | 1.3120 | Minor |
| 1.3145 | Minor | 1.3100 | Minor |
| 1.3120 | 6 Oct high | 1.3075 | Session low |
| 1.3100 | Minor | 1.3050 | Minor |
| 1.3080 | Minor | 1.3010 | 100 DMA |
Economic data highlights will include:
Manufacturing/Industrial Production, Trade Balance, Industrial Production, NIESR GDP Estimate
…
| USDCHF: 0.9796 |
| Preferred Strategy: US$Chf has had a choppy session (0.9773/0.9807) and something similar looks to be in store today, as long as the rising trend support at 0.9765 holds. Under there could trigger some stops and could see an extended dip although in the medium term I still like the dollar higher, eventually looking for a run towards parity. A close above the 200-DMA (0.9850) would help extend the uptrend.Buy US$Chf @ 0.9750. SL @ 0.9690, TP @ 0.9850. | |||
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Mildly Bullish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9900 | Minor | 0.9774 | Session low |
| 0.9880 | (50% of 1.0343/0.9420) | 0.9765 | Rising trend support |
| 0.9850 | 200 WMA | 0.9735 | 5 Oct low/200 HMA |
| 0.9835 | 200 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0099/0.9420) /6 Oct high | 0.9710 | 4 Oct low |
| 0.9807 | Session high | 0.9676 | 2 Oct low |
Economic data highlights will include:
Unemployment
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7752 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Aud remains heavy, albeit in a tight range on Monday of 0.7747/81. Something similar looks in store today, with the NAB Business Conditions/Confidence being the only real focus. The short term momentum indicators are neutral, but with the dailies still pointing lower, selling rallies still appears to be the plan. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7780. SL @ 0.7820, TP @ 0.7765 (200 DMA). | |||
| 24 Hour: Mildly Bearish | Medium Term: Mildly Bearish | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7850 | Minor | 0.7747 | Session low |
| 0.7830 | 200 HMA | 0.7732 | 6 Oct low |
| 0.7815 | Descending trend resistance/(23.6% of 0.8102/0.7732) | 0.7725 | (50% pivot of 0.7328/0.8125) |
| 0.7800 | Minor | 0.7700 | Minor |
| 0.7781 | Session high | 0.7680 | Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, China Money Supply, New Loans
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7063 |
| Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi remains heavy and the dailies look as though there is further downside to come, so as with yesterday, selling into strength seems to be the pan. There is little to recommend buying the Kiwi until the political uncertainty quashed and until that occurs (Thur?) it is likely to remain under pressure. Sell NzdUsd @ 0.7100. SL @ 0.7140, TP @ 0.7015. | |||
| 24 Hour: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7180 | Minor | 0.7058 | 6 Oct low /Session low |
| 0.7165 | 5 Oct high | 0.7050 | Minor |
| 0.7145 | (23.6% of 0.7434/0.7058) | 0.7035 | Minor |
| 0.7118 | 6 Oct high | 0.7010 | Minor |
| 0.7100 | Minor | 0.6990 | (76.4% of 0.6817/0.7528) |
Economic data highlights will include:
Electronic Card Retail Sales
By October 10, 2017
Source: FXCharts