- Currencies:
- The US$ weakened on Friday despite upbeat housing data easing worries about a slowdown in the housing market while investors awaited a flurry of comments from Fed officials. Stronger manufacturing data from Europe combined with underperforming US manufacturing data to keep the dollar under pressure against all the major currencies.
- Sterling rallied after the BoE’s Haldane & Forbes reiterated their hawkish tone, lifting rate hike speculation.
- The DXY finished a little lower at 97.30. The momentum indicators are mixed although the weeklies do suggest that we could yet see a weaker dollar in the weeks ahead. We really need to see a weekly close above the 100 WMA at 97.63, not so far away to allow a more constructive outlook. Range trading could again be the name of the game in the week ahead.
| EURUSD: 1.1193 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mildly Bullish
- Daily momentum indicators: Mildly bearish but possibly turning neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: The IFO and US Durable Goods Orders will be the main events alongside ECB Governor, Mario Draghi who will be speaking later in the day at an ECB forum in Portugal.
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Mildly bearish | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: As before, I prefer to sell rallies above 1.1200 with a tight SL above 1.1230, looking for a move to 1.1110 and eventually to 1.1060/70. Overall, further rangebound trade seems likely but a soft Durable Goods Orders reading may see dollar bulls head for the exit if further rate hikes look likely to be delayed. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.1300 | 9 Nov high | 1.1175 | 200 HMA |
| 1.1295 | 14 June high | 1.1138 | 22 June low |
| 1.1253 | (76.4% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) | 1.1108 | 30 May low |
| 1.1228 | (61.8% pivot of 1.1295/1.1118) | 1.1075 | 18 May low |
| 1.1212/07/08 | 19 June high /Daily Tenkan/Friday high | 1.1067 | (23.6% of 1.0340/1.1295) |
Economic data highlights will include:
M: German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, BuBa Monthly Report, US Durable Goods Orders, Dallas Fed Mfg Business Climate
T: US Case Shiller House Price Index, Richmond Fed Mfg Index, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
W: US Wholesale Inventories, Goods Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Weekly Change
T: German/EU Consumer Confidence, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, German CPI, US Q1 GDP, US Personal Consumption/Expenditure, Jobless Claims
F: German Retail Sales, Import Price index, Unemployment, EU CPI, US Personal Income/Consumption/Expenditure- Price Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
| USDJPY: 111.29 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: It seems that the dollar is destined to remain trapped between the 100 DMA/200 DMA for the coming session and more near term choppy trade looks likely. The dailies still hint at an eventual run towards 112.00 so trading from the long side is mildly preferred. Stops on longs below 110.60. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 112.22 | (61.8% of 114.36/108.80) | 111.14 | Friday low |
| 112.12 | 24 May high/Daily cloud top | 110.94 | 22 June low |
| 111.90/82 | 100 DMA /Daily cloud base | 110.90 | (23.6% of 108.80/111.59) |
| 111.78 | 20 June high | 110.72 | 19 June low /200 DMA |
| 111.44 | 22 June high | 110.64 | 16 June low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W:
T: Foreign Bond/Stocks Investment, Retail Trade (May)
F: CPI, Unemployment, Provisional Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders
| GBPUSD: 1.2719 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed/Mildly Bullish
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events:
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral. There are easier things to look at. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2875 | (61.8% of 1.3047/1.2588) | 1.2700 | Minor |
| 1.2817 | 14 June high | 1.2674 | Friday low |
| 1.2800 | Minor | 1.2653 | 22 June low |
| 1.2763 | (38.2% of 1.3047/1.2588) | 1.2622 | 100 DMA |
| 1.2743 | Friday high | 1.2582/88 | 21 June low/(50% pivot of 2197/1.3047) |
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T: UK Inflation Report Hearing, CBI Distributive Trade Survey – Realised
W:
T:
F: UK GDP (Q1)
| USDCHF: 0.9693 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Neutral
- Daily momentum indicators: Neutral
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The daily momentum indicators, which had been pointing higher, now appear to be neutral so standing aside seems to be prudent. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9807 | 30 May high | 0.9675 | Friday low |
| 0.9785 | Minor | 0.9640 | 14 June low |
| 0.9770 | 15 June high | 0.9613/16 | 6 June low /9 June low |
| 0.9742 | 22 June high | 0.9600 | Minor |
| 0.9722 | Friday high | 0.9549 | 9 May low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W: UBS Consumption Indicator, ZEW Expectations
T:
F: Private Sector Credit (May), China Mfg/Non Mfg PMIs (June)
| AUDUSD: 0.7568 |
- Intraday momentum indicators (1 hour/4 hour): Mixed
- Daily momentum indicators: Turning lower
- Upcoming market moving events: Nil
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Preferred 24-hour Strategy: The Aud seems to be forming a minor bull pennant that may see a squeeze back towards 0.7600. With little data to drive it, it could be quiet, with the US Durable Goods Orders likely to be the source of any directional move. | |||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.7650 | Minor | 0.7533/35 | (38.2% of 0.7370/0.7635) /Daily cloud top/22 June low |
| 0.7635/31 | 14 June high/15 June high | 0.7525/21/23 | 200 DMA /12 June low |
| 0.7623 | 20 June high | 0.7502 | (50% of 0.7370/0.7635) |
| 0.7600 | Pivot | 0.7471 | (61.8% of 0.7370/0.7635) |
| 0.7585/82 | 21 June high/Friday low | 0.7455 | 6 June low |
Economic data highlights will include:
M:
T:
W:
T: HIA New Home Sales
F
