| EURUSD: 1.2311 |
| EurUsd headed up to 1.2355 in Europe before the US$ found a bid tone, sending the Euro back to 1.2778 and then remained choppy near 1.2300 for the balance of the session. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower | Weekly Indicators: Turning higher? – Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look pretty neutral again and a nimble stance is required ahead of Jerome Powell testimony and the US data today, which will include the Durable Goods Orders.The dailies do seem heavy though, so as with yesterday, I prefer to look for levels to sell at around 1.2340/60, hoping for an eventual run back to 1.2260 and possibly to 1.2200/10. SL should be above1.2370
Sell EurUsd @ 1.2350. SL @ 1.2385, TP @ 1.2235 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.2411 | 22 Feb high | 1.2277 | Session low | ||
| 1.2380 | Minor | 1.2259 | 22 Feb low | ||
| 1.2359 | 21 Feb high | 1.2235 | Minor | ||
| 1.2353 | Session high | 1.2205 | 9 Feb low | ||
| 1.2310 | 100 HMA/55 HMA | 1.2180 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
German Provisional CPI/HICP, EU Economic Sentiment Indicator, Industrial Confidence, Services Sentiment, Business Climate, US Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods – Jan, Case Shiller House Price Index – Dec, House Price Index – Dec, Wholesale Inventories, -Jan, Richmond Fed Mfg Index- Feb, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory
…
| USDJPY: 106.91 |
| US$Jpy fell from above 107.00 back to a low of 106.37 on Monday in Asia, with the US$ undermined by softer Treasury yields, although it has since recovered and sits unchanged on the day. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral/Turning higher? | Daily Indicators: Turning higher? | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: US$Jpy is trading between the 100 HMA/200 HMA , which may act as a magnate for Tuesday, but with the short term momentum indicators and the dailies also looking a little more positive, another test of 107.15/20 would not surprise and buying dips is preferred, but with a SL place below Monday’s low of 106.37. The weekly charts still suggest the dollar could suffer further medium-term downside pressure and much will depend on the direction of US yields and stockmarkets. Today may be fairly quiet until the US session, when it will be busy.Buy US$Jpy @ 106.65. SL @ 106.15, TP @ 107.80 | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 108.00 | Minor | 106.80 | 200 HMA | ||
| 107.89 | 14 Feb high /21 Feb high | 106.50 | Minor | ||
| 107.76 | 22 Feb high | 106.37 | Session low | ||
| 107.50 | Minor | 106.20 | Minor | ||
| 107.13/10 | 23 Feb high/Session high 100 HMA | 106.00 | Minor | ||
…
| GBPUSD: 1.3966 |
| Cable had a volatile day on Monday, heading up to 10-day high of 1.4070 during the Europe on a hawkish lean from the previously dovish BoE’s Ramsden, and the odds for a UK rate hike for May are now 70%, June 88%. Things then turned sour for Sterling which fell sharply to 1.3927 as the US$ bounced in the US session, before another bounce, to finish the day at 1.3970. There are large 1.4000 option expiries today, so expect that to contain the action and to act as a magnate until Powell speaks. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning Neutral. | Weekly Indicators: Up –Possible topping formation. | |||
| Preferred Strategy: As we said yesterday, Cable is trading ever- tighter ranges, forming a possible triangle and looks ready to break one way or the other for quite a strong move. I suspect keeping a neutral stance is wise right now, but possibly looking to trade the break of either 1.4070 or 1.3860 and putting a 50 point stop in place may be the right idea. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 1.4100 | Minor | 1.3950 | Minor | ||
| 1.4069 | Session high | 1.3927 | Session low | ||
| 1.4040 | Minor | 1.3904 | 23 Feb low | ||
| 1.4025 | Minor | 1.3880 | Minor | ||
| 1.4000 | Minor | 1.3850 | Minor | ||
…
| USDCHF: 0.9378 |
| US$Chf has traded a choppy 0.9425/90 range on Monday and looks set to do much the same today, with a mildly preferred upside bias. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Turning higher | Daily Indicators: Turning higher | Weekly Indicators: Turning lower | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The dailies look constructive, so I prefer to look to buy dips, possibly around 0.9300/0.9285, with a SL placed at 0.9230. The immediate target is 0.9410, and above there we may get a chance to see 0.9470/0.9500. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.9510 | (38.2% of 1.0037 /0.9187) | 0.9340 | Minor | ||
| 0.9469 | 8 Feb low | 0.9324 | Session low | ||
| 0.9440 | Minor | 0.9300 | Minor | ||
| 0.9408 | 22 Feb high | 0.9275 | 100 HMA | ||
| 0.9387/90 | (23.6% of 1.0037 /0.9187) /Session high | 0.9262 | 22 Feb low | ||
…
| AUDUSD: 0.7851 |
| The Aud reached 0.7892 in early Europe ahead of the US$ finding its own legs in the US session, sending AudUsd back to 0.7825, before closing Monday at 0.7850, more or less unchanged on the day. | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators: Mixed. | Daily Indicators: Neutral – Turning lower? | Weekly Indicators: Neutral – Turning lower? | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators are mixed and a nimble stance is required. On the topside, we could see another test of 0.7860/70, a break of which would allow for a run back to 0.7890/0.7900 beyond which would open 0.7930/35 although this seems doubtful todayThe dailies are looking a little heavy, so selling rallies is mildly preferred although I suspect it may be a mostly rangebound today. If we do see another squeeze higher, look to sell at around 0.7880/90, hoping for a return to 0.7790/00 and possibly to 0.7760/70 which should be decent support if/when we get there.
Sell AudUsd @ 0.7880. SL @ 0.7780, TP @ 0.7910 |
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| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7915 | Minor | 0.7825 | Session low | ||
| 0.7901 | 21 Feb high | 0.7803 | 23 Feb low | ||
| 0.7892 | Session high | 0.7789 | 22 Feb low | ||
| 0.7880 | 200 HMA | 0.7772 | 200 DMA/100 DMA | ||
| 0.7860 | Minor | 0.7758 | 9 Feb low | ||
…
| NZDUSD: 0.7313 |
| The Kiwi had a volatile session on Monday, heading up to 0.7345 before reversing in the US session t a low of 0.7276 and then bouncing again, to currently sit at 0.7310 | |||||
| 1 hour/4 hour indicators:Neutral | Daily Indicators: Turning lower? | Weekly Indicators: Turning Neutral | |||
| Preferred Strategy: The charts look mixed today and a cautious stance is required ahead of the upcoming NZ Trade Balance (exp -$2.71 bio). The dailies still look a little heavy so I prefer to sell rallies with a SL placed above 0.7365, with the target being the major Fibo level at around 0.7185, (38.2% of 0.6780/0.7438). A close below the 8 Feb low of 0.7176 would eventually suggest lower levels still, but we have to wait and see on that. | |||||
| Resistance | Support | ||||
| 0.7385 | 21 Feb high | 0.7300 | Pivot | ||
| 0.7375 | Minor | 0.7276/75/70 | Session low/(61.8% of 0.7176/0.7436)/23 Feb low | ||
| 0.7364 | 22 Feb high | 0.7250 | Rising trend support | ||
| 0.7344 | 23 Feb high/Session high | 0.7240 | 14 Feb low | ||
| 0.7325 | Minor | 0.7220 | Minor | ||
Economic data highlights will include:
T: Trade Balance – Jan
By February 27, 2018
Source: FXCharts