| Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators still look mildly positive today so the downside momentum that is building in the dailies appears to be on hold for now, and that will probably remain the case until the US employment report when a decent number will be needed to propel the dollar higher. If not, look for a retest of 1.1800/50. A squeeze back towards 1.1800 could still be on the cards today, but selling rallies remains the preferred strategy. Sell EurUsd @ 1.1800. SL @ 1.1840, TP @ 1.1650. |
| 24 Hour: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies |
Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 1.1850 |
(50% pivot of 1.2005/1.1995) |
1.1735 |
Session low |
| 1.1832 |
29 Sept high |
1.1700 |
200 WMA |
| 1.1815 |
2 Oct high /(38.2% of 1.2005/1.1995) |
1.16955 |
3 Oct low |
| 1.1800 |
Minor |
1.1661 |
17 Aug low |
| 1.1787 |
Session high |
1.1612 |
26 July low |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: ECB MP Minutes, US Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Speeches; Fed’s Powell, Harker, Haldane, George
…
| Preferred Strategy: The dollar remains rangebound within the 112.20/113.20 area and this appears set to continue today, while waiting on the NFP figure tomorrow. As before, I think the dollar will eventually head higher, so buying dips is preferred. Buy UsdJpy @ 112.25. SL @ 111.90, TP @ 113.20 |
| 24 Hour: Neutral |
Medium Term: Mildly Bullish – Prefer to buy dips |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 114.00 |
Minor |
|
|
| 113.70 |
Minor |
112.50 |
Minor |
| 113.55 |
Minor |
112.32 |
Session low/29 Sept low |
| 113.19/20/25 |
3 Oct high /29 Sept high/27 Sept high |
112.20 |
27 Sept low |
| 112.93 |
Session high |
112.05 |
200 DMA /Daily Tenkan |
…
| Preferred Strategy: Cable remains heavy despite Wednesday’s data, which showed that the UK PMI Services rose to 53.6 in September, up from 53.2 and above expectation of 53.2.Further medium term downside momentum seems likely although the short term momentum indicators are becoming a little oversold so for the time being it is best to stay square, and looking to sell rallies would seem to be the plan. |
| 24 Hour: Neutral |
Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 1.3375 |
Minor |
1.3233 |
Session low |
| 1.3345 |
(23.6% of 1.3656/1.3255) |
1.3213 |
(50% pivot of 1.2773/1.3656) |
| 1.3315 |
100 WMA |
1.3180 |
Minor |
| 1.3300 |
Minor |
1.3149 |
14 Sept low |
| 1.3291 |
Session high |
1.3110 |
(61.8 of 1.2773/1.3656) |
…
| Preferred Strategy: US$Chf remains within its choppy uptrend at the end of Wednesday’s trade after a rangebound session. The dailies still look positive, so, as with yesterday, buying dips remains the favoured plan, looking for an eventual run to/beyond 0.9800. Buy US$Chf @ 0.9710. SL @ 0.9665, TP @ 0.9805. |
| 24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips |
Medium Term: Mildly Bullish |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 0.9850 |
200 WMA |
0.9725 |
Minor |
| 0.9840 |
200 DMA |
0.9710/08 |
200 HMA /Rising trend support /Session low |
| 0.9808 |
30 May high |
0.9885 |
Minor |
| 0.9785 |
3 Oct high |
0.9676 |
2 Oct low |
| 0.9761 |
Session high |
0.9650 |
100 DMA |
…
| Preferred Strategy: The Aud remains choppy and rangebound either side of 0.7850, pretty much where it currently sits. Today’s Retail Sales and Trade Balance will provide the direction and the short term momentum indicators do suggest the chance for another squeeze to the topside. The dailies still point lower though, so overall I still prefer to sell into strength. Sell AudUsd @ 0.7900. SL @ 7945, TP @ 7785. |
| 24 Hour: Neutral |
Medium Term: Mildly Bearish |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 0.7940 |
(50% of 0.8102/0.7785) |
0.7829 |
Session low |
| 0.7925 |
Minor |
0.7800 |
Minor |
| 0.7905 |
(38.2% of 0.8102/0.7785) |
0.7785 |
3 Oct low/18 July low |
| 0.7882 |
27 Sept high |
0.7767 |
100 DMA |
| 0.7874 |
Session high |
0.7750 |
Minor |
Economic data highlights will include:
T: Retail Sales, Trade Balance
…
| Preferred Strategy: The Kiwi remains heavy following today’s brief squeeze up to 0.7204. The short term momentum indicators do suggest the chance of another small move higher but the dailies look increasingly heavy, so as with yesterday, selling at 0.7200+ seems to be the pan. |
| 24 Hour: Neutral |
Medium Term: Mildly Bearish |
| Resistance |
Support |
| 0.7250 |
Minor |
0.7142/47 |
4 Sept low/200 DMA/4 Oct low |
| 0.7238/39 |
29 Sept high/27 Sept high |
0.7131 |
31 Aug low |
| 0.7225 |
2 Oct high/23.6% of 0.7434/0.7157 |
0.7100 |
(61.8% of 0.6817/0.7558) |
| 0.7204 |
Session high |
0.7085 |
Minor |
| 0.7180 |
Minor |
0.7070 |
Minor |
