ANZ Morning Focus: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: O/night NZDUSD 7189/7247 NZDAUD 9374/9428 (from 3pmThurs)
Today NZDUSD 7180/7240 NZDAUD 9370/9420
· Risk off dominated global equities post Easter with S&P -2.7%, Dow -2.6%. US 10yr 2.73 (-0.4)
· NZD smalls lower in reaction beginning to exhibit a traditional risk relationship (risk off >> NZD lower) ?
· Tech continue to get dumped on with the FANGs lower
· Amazon (-5.3%) copped it from Trump via Twitter as he linked Retailer losses to Amazon and suggested ‘things will change’
· He also suggested that the Post Office loses $1.50 for every package it delivers for Amazon without citing sources
· US ISM remained elevated but with construction spending disappointing
· China imposed tariffs on 128 types of US imports (3bn of import value) at 15 or 25%
· Bahrain said on Sunday it had discovered the country’s largest oilfield in decades
· Today we get the local NZIER QSBO survey at 10am. We expect sentiment to remain below pre-election levels
· Australian March Manu, house price inflation and job adds as well as RBA are also today (no change expected for RBA)
· Also this week we watch non-farm payrolls as well as the global data noted below
The Jury remains out on whether the NZD is a true risk currency or safe haven as global equity markets suffer. The NZD has fallen back down towards 72c support as the tech rout leads US assets lower. From here we see support around 7200, 7180 and 7150 but expect these to be tested and further weakness to follow as people wake up to the fact that NZD offers little carry and fleeting liquidity in times of stress.
On China tariffs:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-01/china-s-response-to-u-s-metals-tariffs-goes-into-effect-monday
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