From the FXWW Chatroom: Following a slightly more upbeat RBA meeting minutes release & much
stronger than exp. AU House Price release the AUD moved higher, but AUDUSD found
sellers in front of 0.7720. There is option interest in the cross at 0.7710,
with A$820mln set to roll off at that particular strike at Tuesday’s 10AM NY
cut, with talk of macro sell orders > 0.7720.
– Fresh ’18 AUDUSD lows have lacked follow through. Bulls now need a close >
0.7736 to gain breathing room. While 0.7736 caps bears remain focused on tests
of 0.7572-80 where Dec lows & the bull channel base off ’16 lows are situated.
– The story is similar in EURJPY, with the Bollinger base noted at 81.64,
forming the key concern for bears. The recovery has remained capped ahead of
82.29.
stronger than exp. AU House Price release the AUD moved higher, but AUDUSD found
sellers in front of 0.7720. There is option interest in the cross at 0.7710,
with A$820mln set to roll off at that particular strike at Tuesday’s 10AM NY
cut, with talk of macro sell orders > 0.7720.
– Fresh ’18 AUDUSD lows have lacked follow through. Bulls now need a close >
0.7736 to gain breathing room. While 0.7736 caps bears remain focused on tests
of 0.7572-80 where Dec lows & the bull channel base off ’16 lows are situated.
– The story is similar in EURJPY, with the Bollinger base noted at 81.64,
forming the key concern for bears. The recovery has remained capped ahead of
82.29.
AUDNZD’s sell-off from 1.0802 has resulted in fresh ’18 lows. Focus is on
1.0464-1.0590 where the bear channel base & rising TL off ’15 lows are situated.
Studies are well placed for losses but the Bollinger base (1.0654) is the key
concern for bears. Bulls now need a close > 1.0700 to ease bearish pressure &
target a correction back to 1.0802-63.
KIWI: NZDUSD trades off of Monday’s worst levels after the Bollinger band base
at 0.7193 provided support. NZDUSD last at 0.7245, AUDNZD at 1.0645.
– The latest GDT Dairy auction is due on Tuesday, with ASB expecting prices to
drift lower. The prior auction saw whole milk powder (WMP) prices fall by 0.8%.
ASB note that futures pricing suggests WMP prices will fall by over 2%. Fonterra
will issue its latest milk price forecast later on Tuesday (~19:30 GMT). It
currently stands at $6.40/kg & ASB expect this to rise to $.50/kg or above.
– The key risk event this week will of course be the RBNZ MonPol decision, with
watchers on the lookout for the new PTA, set to be issued over the 2 weeks.
– NZDUSD’s first upside hurdle is the 55-DMA at 0.7278, followed in close
proximity by the 21-DMA at 0.7280. To the downside the Bollinger band base below
0.7193 is key, with the 200-DMA located at 0.7182. AUDNZD’s sell-off from 1.0802
has resulted in fresh ’18 lows. Focus is on 1.0464-1.0590 where the bear channel
base & rising TL off ’15 lows are situated. Studies are well placed for losses
but the Bollinger base (1.0654) is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a
close > 1.0700 to ease bearish pressure & target a correction back to 1.0802-63.
at 0.7193 provided support. NZDUSD last at 0.7245, AUDNZD at 1.0645.
– The latest GDT Dairy auction is due on Tuesday, with ASB expecting prices to
drift lower. The prior auction saw whole milk powder (WMP) prices fall by 0.8%.
ASB note that futures pricing suggests WMP prices will fall by over 2%. Fonterra
will issue its latest milk price forecast later on Tuesday (~19:30 GMT). It
currently stands at $6.40/kg & ASB expect this to rise to $.50/kg or above.
– The key risk event this week will of course be the RBNZ MonPol decision, with
watchers on the lookout for the new PTA, set to be issued over the 2 weeks.
– NZDUSD’s first upside hurdle is the 55-DMA at 0.7278, followed in close
proximity by the 21-DMA at 0.7280. To the downside the Bollinger band base below
0.7193 is key, with the 200-DMA located at 0.7182. AUDNZD’s sell-off from 1.0802
has resulted in fresh ’18 lows. Focus is on 1.0464-1.0590 where the bear channel
base & rising TL off ’15 lows are situated. Studies are well placed for losses
but the Bollinger base (1.0654) is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a
close > 1.0700 to ease bearish pressure & target a correction back to 1.0802-63.
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