Global stocks have paused following bullish Flag-style breakouts on some of the Indices and FX continues to be choppy. Quite a few FX pairs, as well as Gold and Oil, are consolidating within triangle or wedge patterns making trend trading more challenging unless, in some cases, you can move down to lower time frames and trade during the US session.
My FX signals reversed not that long after triggering but I shouldn’t be too surprised as I have previously noted this as a common symptom when the FX indices are trading with divergence, as they are currently. Some of these signals were Yen related and yesterday’s subsequent BoJ news refuting the likelihood of any ‘Helicopter’ money helped to boost the Yen and undermine these signals. Some weak retail sales data impacted the GBP last night but watch tonight for any impact from GBP Manufacturing and Services PMI. Oil continues to pullback but Gold caught a bid yesterday and bounced up off trend line support as the US$ weakened slightly.
S&P500 weekly: this rally paused overnight and I’d really expect a test of the 2,135 anyway:
Oil: the daily chart shows a Flag trend line still holding despite the slip below the key $45 level. Remember I’m looking for a test of $40 here to shape up a bullish inverse H&S on the weekly chart:
TC Signals: Gold reversed before it got going but the other signals all gave pips before reversing. For me, though, these signals triggered during my night meaning I didn’t manage to catch any value here.
Gold 4hr: we got the bounce as I had warned about and this undermined the 4hr chart’s TC signal. There looks to be a wedge breakout starting but I don’t have a new TC LONG signal to support this just yet. Gold is below the 4hr Cloud for the time being:
Gold 30 min: there has been movement to be traded off the 30 min charts during the recent US sessions though:
GBP/AUD 4hr: this went over 100 pips before reversing but I missed much of this move. Watch the 1.77 level tonight with GBP Manufacturing and Services PMI:
GBP/JPY 4hr: this also went over 100 pips before reversing but I missed much of this move:
USD/JPY 4hr: this only gave about 70 pips before eventually respecting the bear trend line and reversing:
EUR/JPY 4hr: this one gave over 70 pips before reversing:
Other FX:
EUR/USD 4hr: a few spikes following ECB but still range-bound for now:
A/U 4hr: we got the bounce up off the support trend line as suspected but this is also still range-bound:
A/J 4hr: consolidating under the key 80 level:
Kiwi 4hr: also consolidating above the monthly 200 EMA:
GBP/USD 4hr: fairly flat as it planks between the 1.30 and 1.35 levels. Watch tonight with GBP PMI data:
USD/CAD daily: also still consolidating:
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