Rationale: Our economists see a risk of a hawkish tone to the August BoE minutes this week. The BoE seems to be increasingly focused upon erosion of slack in the labor market and the return of pay growth to pre-crisis levels. Recent speeches suggest the BoE may not be as worried about GBP strength, which has been our main concern so far. Meanwhile, we believe there could be two factors pressurizing AUD lower this week. Firstly, there is a risk of a softer than expected Australia inflation print (cons: 0.8% qoq, prev: 0.2% qoq) after the downside surprise in New Zealand’s CPI last week. Secondly, we believe a cut with stronger language from the RBNZ would bolster the market to price in greater expectations for the RBA to cut too. Read more in the FXWW Chatroom with a free trial.
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- FX: Option expiries for today’s Tues Jan 05 NY cut (10:00 NY, 15:00 London)