Touching on those in more detail, the big data highlight next week comes on Friday with the August employment report in the US. Expect earnings data to once again be the main focus with the market currently expecting a +0.3% mom print which should be enough to push the annual rate up one-tenth to +2.8% yoy and back to the May highs. Nonfarm payrolls is expected to print at a solid 191k which as a reminder follows that softer than expected 157k reading in July. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.9% and average weekly hours at 34.5 hours.
The other potentially interesting data in the US next week comes in the manufacturing sector with the final August PMI and ISM readings due on Tuesday. The latter is expected to fall around half a point to 57.6. Outside of that we’ll also get August vehicle sales data on Tuesday, the July trade balance on Wednesday, August ADP and ISM non-manufacturing on Thursday as well as final July durable and capital goods orders data.
While EM newsflow, particularly in Turkey and Argentina, but also stress in other EM countries, will almost certainly continue to dictate the tone in markets next week, the trade war could also come back under the spotlight with Thursday marking the deadline for the end of a public comment period on a plan for the US to impose tariffs on $200bn in Chinese imports. This would mean the US administration could impose tariffs as early as the back end of next week with headlines today suggesting that could be the case.
Over at the ECB, the only scheduled speaker is Executive Board Member Yves Mersch on Monday in Paris. At the BoE, Governor Carney is due to testify before lawmakers on the August inflation report and policy decision on Tuesday alongside Haldane, Saunders and Tenreyro. Finally the BoJ’s Kataoka is due to speak on Thursday.
Finally, it’s worth highlighting that markets in the US will be closed on Monday for the Labour Day holiday.