Last week: There were some TC signals last week that had already moved on by the time I received them: GBP/AUD gave 100 before closing, the GBP/JPY 100 too, USD/JPY just 70 and the EUR/JPY just 80. The FX indices are divergent at the moment and this, along with Summer trading volumes impacting overall momentum, is making me extra cautious with any new TC signals.
NB: this is just a brief update as it’s been a busy w/e down here.
This week: The two main events for FX traders this week, and especially for the US$, would have to be Wednesday’s FOMC and then Friday’s BoJ Interest rate update. However, the week starts on Sunday with G20 meetings so watch for any commentary and impact on FX at market open. A review of the FX Indices can be found through this link.
End of month: next week is the last trading week for July so note how monthly candles are shaping up and how they close. Speaking of which, the GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD are all currently shaping up with monthly bullish-reversal style candles!
Gold: the bearish weekly candle has helped to confirm a bearish-reversal ‘Dark Cloud Cover‘ pattern:
AUD/USD: the bearish weekly candle has helped to form a bearish-reversal ‘Evening Star‘ pattern.
S&P500 weekly: the Bull Flag continues here but watch to see where this close for July. Any new ‘all time’ monthly closing high will bring the prospect of a test of the breakout region, circa 2,135, into greater focus.
Trading calendar: High Impact events to watch out for this week:
Gold: Gold has respected the 5-year bear trend line and has also formed a bearish-reversal weekly ‘Dark Cloud Cover‘ pattern. For the moment, though, price action is consolidating in a wedge under this resistance giving traders trend lines to watch for any breakout activity. Any continued US$ strength would keep pressure on the metal but any rising concern due to Brexit or Geo-political events may help to support Gold. Thus, I’m keeping an open mind with Gold and watching for any trend line breakouts that evolve with increased momentum.
Any bearish wedge breakdown might target the $1,300 previous S/R level. Any close and hold below this would have to bring the daily chart’s 61.8% fib into focus and this is down near the other previous S/R level of $1,150/45.
Gold is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud and closed the week with a bearish candle that has helped to confirm a bearish-reversal ‘Dark Cloud Cover’ pattern.
Gold monthly:
Gold weekly:
Gold daily:
Gold 4hr:
Silver daily: this is consolidating under $20.50 resistance:
Oil: I’m still watching for any test of $40 to help form a weekly chart bullish-reversal Inverse H&S. Note how price closed below the key $45 level but is holding above a recent daily-chart wedge trend line and near the bottom of the daily Cloud:
Oil daily:
Oil daily Cloud:
Oil weekly:
FOREX:
EUR/USD: This has broken down through a recent 4 hr chart trend line but, whilst it is below the 4hr and daily Cloud, it has failed to trigger any new TC SHORT signal.
This pair will be at the mercy of FOMC this week as well so the picture may become more clear after that.
The weekly candle was bearish and price is within thin weekly Cloud and still not too far from the key 1.12 level.
EUR/JPY: this continues to hold above the key 115 level and the monthly candle is currently shaping up as a bullish-reversal Hammer candle.
Price is in the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was bearish.
Watch the 115 level with this week’s FOMC and BoJ.
AUD/USD: the A/U has suffered with US$ strength and pulled back from a three-year bear trend line. A more recent 9-week bear trend line was broken on Friday and this is bringing the key 0.74 S/R level back into focus.
Price is below the 4hr Cloud but IN the daily and weekly Cloud so price action could be choppy for a while.
I don’t have any clean TC SHORT signal BUT watch for any triangle breakout continuation to possibly target 0.74 S/R. Any break and hold below 0.74 may support a move down to test the monthly triangle support trend line which is over 500 pips away!
There is AUD CPI to impact here this week apart from the US FOMC update.
AUD/JPY: the A/J is within a 4hr wedge below the key 80 level.
Price is IN the 4hr and daily Cloud so expect further choppiness this week ahead of Wednesday’s AUD CPI and Friday’s BoJ update.
GBP/USD: the 4hr chart’s inverse H&S is looking less likely here. Price has been trapped, pretty much, between the 1.30 and 1.35 S/R levels for the last four weeks so these seem to be the boundaries to watch with this week’s GBP GDP and US FOMC.
Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was a bearish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ reflecting indecision.
NZD/USD: Price action has chopped around above the monthly 200 EMA and near the daily chart’s 50% fib over recent sessions.
Price is above the daily Cloud but below the 4hr Cloud.
The weekly candle was bearish.
I’m watching the 4hr chart’s 50% and 61.8% fibs for any breakout activity:
USD/JPY: Price action last week respected the daily chart’s bear trend line that has been in force since the beginning of the year.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle closed as a small bullish candle and above the recent S/R level of 105.5.
Watch for any impact this week from FOMC and or BoJ.
GBP/JPY: This is another pair shaping up with a monthly chart bullish-reversal Hammer candle after testing the 78.6% fib.
Price is IN the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle closed as a bearish coloured Doji reflecting indecision.
Watch this week for any impact from GBp GDP and the BoJ.
USD/CAD: I’m still watching the 1.30 level AND for any daily chart wedge breakout that evolves with increased momentum.
GBP/AUD: I’m watching to see if this pair can make any weekly close and hold back above the 1.77 S/R level.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was bullish.
GBP/NZD: This is another pair forming a bullish-reversal monthly candle off major 1.77 S/R so watch to see how it ends up closing for the month.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was bullish.
EUR/AUD: Price action keeps flirting with the monthly chart’s support trend line.
Price is in the top edge of the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was a bullish, almost engulfing’ candle so we could be on for more of a bounce here.
EUR/NZD: This is another pair forming a bullish-reversal monthly candle off major support from the 1.50 level.
Price action is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was bullish.
AUD/NZD monthly: The monthly chart’s bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ seems to have reveived after last month;s bearish close below the 1.045 level.
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