Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Short GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Last week this quickly switched into bear normal. I would be looking for shorts but I still don’t think this is the best pair to be trading as fundamentally they are two of the strongest currencies.
- Long USD/JPY. Breakout – MT is bull normal (but weekly market type still sideways). The strategy has been to look for long breakouts with a fundamental catalyst. Last Fridays strong NFP numbers may be just that catalyst.
- Short AUD/USD. Breakout – MT is sideways. We could now be getting the short break out. Good short trade here, but as with all breakouts be wary of the failures.
- Short EUR/USD. Trend – MT is strong bear. Continue to run your short strategy. This move may have plenty left in it.
- Short NZD/USD. Reversal – MT is bear normal. The double top mentioned last week has played out. Importantly there is a strong fundamental catalyst on this trade. The RBA last week said that they are looking at macro-prudential ways cool the property market. This would pave the way for them to cut rates (as they need to). Of course we also had the catalyst in the USD with the NFP numbers.
- Long USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to look for buy opportunities in a bull normal market type.
- Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is normal sideways. I would be careful of running range trading strategies even though we are still in the range. We could have had the catalyst that breaks the range with the NFP. In addition the Oil price is in a sideways market type and is starting to sell off. Oil is suffering from both excess supply (excess supply is very important to the price of oil, as it is priced on the excess supply -not the total supply. So an extra few million barrels production can put a lot of pressure on the price), and slowing global demand, so is not likely to support the price of CAD any time soon. If you want to trade CAD it could even be a good buy this week.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. –MT is bull normal. We may have a short-term double top here on the AUDJPY which makes me wary.
- Waiting NZD/JPY. – MT is bull normal turning to bear or sideways. This pair seems tricky (for me!) to trade and wary of NZD and JPY fundamentals for now.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways. Had s short breakout during the weak but it reversed back into the range.
- Long AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is longer-term sideways. Had another reversal based on comments from the RBA this week. Double bottom formed. Good buying opportunity.
- Short EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. Keep going short.
- Short EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. We have had a small reversal off support, so be a bit careful on this trade.
- Short EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Careful here as well. But I tentatively would still be thinking short until we get more technical signs of a reversal.
- Waiting GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways. I like this trade fundamentally, but we had a breakout short during the week. It may have reversed… will need another day to tell. Scale-in buys on this one.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways. Still think this is a good buy. We may get some sideways consolidation here.
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is a co-owner of Forex Signal Provider www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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