FX: ahead of NFP by Mary McNamara

Many FX moves still hinge on which way the USD will head after tonight’s NFP. Will it break up through the resistance of the major monthly trend line or retreat? An NYT article I read this morning suggests that the US may be comfortable to let the USD keep rising if it helps to stimulate other economies and contribute to global growth in a ‘short term pain for longer term gain‘ kind of approach. It’s worth a read and can be found through this link.

USDX weekly: either way, after 11 weeks of gains, one could be justified in thinking some pull back, even if only temporary, is in order:


S&P500:  I note this index closed flat BUT with buying into the close. I’m not writing of this bull run just yet:



E/U: no new TC signal yet and the next move here will most likely depend on the next move with the USDX.


E/U hourly Cloud: Price is back above the hourly Cloud though but still below the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly Cloud.


E/U monthly: however, this chart looks rather grim and I’m thinking we’ll see the 1.18 region tested:


E/J: price has pulled back to the 78.6% fib which was also a triangle trend line:


A/U: no new valid TC signal here BUT there has been a bullish channel breakout. As with the E/U though, much here depends on which way the USD heads next. Keep an eye on the 0.865 level:


A/J: still within a wedge and below the 96:


Cable: GBP data was ok last night but this pair still fell. No new TC signal and little momentum so I have adjusted the trend lines. As with the E/U and A/U, much depends on the USD:


Kiwi: still holding above the 0.77 but hasn’t made it back to test 0.80 as yet:


U/J: seems to be forming a ‘Bull Flag’ under the key 100 level:

U/J 4hr:


U/J daily:


GBP/JPY: continued lower after the triangle break:


GBP/AUD: headed lower as well:


Loonie: this pair has pulled back, not all the way to the 1.10, but to the monthly triangle trend line:

Loonie 4hr:


Loonie monthly: a 2,500 pip triangle breakout move could be starting here now:


GBP/CHF: seems to be forming another ‘Bull Flag’ under the key 1.55 resistance level:

G/C 4hr:


G/C daily:


CAD/JPY: still pulling back with little momentum though. This looks ‘Bull Flag’ like on the daily chart too:

C/J 4hr:


C/J daily:


GBP/NZD: consolidating under the 2.10 neck line of the monthly chart’s inverse H&S. Note how price bounced up off the monthly pivot:

G/N 4hr:

GBPNZD4hr G/N monthly:


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