FX Charts Commodities/Indices Outlook

 

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2085 The S+P is doing its best to break above the topside of the recent range and the momentum indicators do hint at the chance of a run towards 2100, and then possibly to the all time high of 2116. A failure at current levels would see a return to the consolidation where support at 2075 and 2065 looks likely to hold it. A break of this appears unlikely today but if wrong, the index would head back towards 2050, where I suspect it may be a buy, but with a SL placed sub 2030.
DJI 17878 The DJI has finished slightly higher today but not before giving the 100 DMA at 17740 another workout (low 17736). The choppy consolidation could well continue, but as before, with the daily indicators still suggesting that further gains could be in store, another run to 17900/18000 would seem possible. Support will again arrive at the 100 DMA, so keep stops on long positions tight below that. Under 17700 would prove me wrong about the upside potential and could then hint at another run back towards 17500. Prefer to buy dips, but overall the action looks set to remain very choppy.
ASX SPI 5949 The SPI has consolidated again today, finishing a bit lower after a 5962/5918 day.  If the SPI can head higher, a break of 5980 is required, which will trigger minor stops that could carry it on to the recent 6010 high. On the downside, 5918/08 will again act as minor support (100/200 HMA’s) ahead of 5900. Below here could see a run towards 5880 but not today I suspect. Keep an eye out for the China data which may provide some volatility, but which I suspect may be a reasonably similar session to yesterday.
GOLD 1194 Gold had another reasonably tight day today, once again pressured to the downside by the stronger dollar (1192/1203) and there is no change to the outlook. The dollar looks likely to keep a cap on the topside, and the break of the 200 HMA at 1200 could see a run towards 1180/90 (1183 : 50% pivot  of 1142/1224 ). The topside needs to regain  the 200 HMA above which could see a return to the 100 HMA at 1208 and then to 1215, but  which seems a bit unlikely today. As with yesterday,  the charts are mixed so a fairly neutral stance is required  although the 4 hour charts  still suggest that we may be in for a test of 1180 and possible 1173 (61.8%  of 1142/1224 ).
SILVER 16.15 As with Gold. Silver is lower again, under pressure from the stronger dollar, and having broken below 16.40 has seen a run to the Fibo support at 16.10 (61.8% of 15.29/17.40). It now looks as though we are heading towards 16.00 and possibly lower towards 15.80 (76.4%). The topside now appears capped at 16.40, but a break of which would head back to the 200 HMA at 16.75. Selling rallies seems the plan.
OIL(WTI) 50.94 WTI  had a more stable session today following the wild gyrations earlier in the week (although it still managed a 3% trading range!) and has ended up more or less unchanged from yesterday. The points to watch remain the same, and on the downside, the rising trend support is now at 49.80, so buying it there, with a SL placed at 49.20 may be a plan, given that the dailies do still hint that we could be in for another squeeze to the topside. Time is running out on this though, and if it fails to make any headway today the dailies would flatten out and suggest more choppy trade close to 50.00. If we break below 49.00, then we could be in for a sharper move lower  towards 46.00, although this looks less likely at present.Resistance is now seen at 52.05 and then at 53.00 (100 DMA) and at the current trend high at 54.15. If seen this could prove pivotal. Either we would see another rejection for more downside action or a break above it, in which case WTI could head on towards the Jan 2 high at 55.05, a break of which would hint at a run to the 23.6% of 107.44/42.01 at 57.20.

 

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