Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts


S&P Futures 2076 The S+P is back at the top end of the short term 2065/80 range and well above the stronger support at 2030/40. More of the same range play seems possible although both the shorter term and the daily momentum indicators are mildly positive, so playing it from the long side and buying dips remains the favoured near term strategy. A break of 2080/85 would hint at a run towards 2100/05 and possibly on to the all time high at 2116 although the latter still looks some way off. The downside will again find bids at 2065, a break of which would head back towards 2050, where I suspect it may be a buy, but with a SL placed sub 2030.
DJI 17840 The DJI is a little higher today after some choppy trade, falling sharply to 17735 (100 DMA) before bouncing sharply to a high of 17895 and closing at 178500. The outlook remains unchanged, with the daily indicators still suggesting further gains could be in store, so anther run to 17900/18000 would seem possible. Support will again arrive at the 100 DMA (17735) which has recently acted as a pivot, so keep stops tight below that. Under 17700 would prove me wrong about the upside potential and could then hint at another run back towards the 17500 level. Prefer to buy dips, but overall the action looks set to remain very choppy.
ASX SPI 5961 The SPI has consolidated today, finishing a bit higher and looking as though it is gearing up for another attack on 6000 – at least  from the perspective of the short term charts. The dailies look a little more circumspect though and do not really suggest that any strength is likely to to be sustained, so it could be that we are in for some choppy trade at close to current levels over the coming sessions. If the SPI can head higher, a break of 5980 is required, which will trigger minor stops that could carry it on to the recent 6010 high. On the downside, 5950 will act as minor support ahead of the 100/200 HMA’s at 5910, although I cannot see it down here today.
GOLD 1202 Gold had another reasonably tight day today, gravitating back to the 1200 pivot  (1198/1212) and there is no change to the outlook. The stronger dollar keeps the pressure on the downside and a break of the 200 HMA at 1200 would see a run towards 1180/90. The topside needs to regain 1215 which seems a bit unlikely today, but above which would take another looks at yesterday’s 1225 high. The charts are mixed so a neutral stance is not a bad bet, although the 4 hour charts suggest that we may be in for a more sustained test of sub 1200..
SILVER 16.49 As with Gold. Silver is a little lower, under pressure from the stronger dollar and has closed below the 100 DMA (16.55).  Downside momentum seems to be building and a break of today’s 16.40 low would hint at a run back towards 16.00 (16.10: 61.8% of 15.29/17.40) and possibly lower towards 15.80 (76.4%). The topside looks capped at 16.70, but a break of which would head back to the 200 HMA at 16.90. Selling rallies seems the plan.
OIL(WTI) 50.86 WTI is not mucking around in its intra-day moves, and today gave up all the previous day’s 6% gains, falling from 53.23 to 50.35 before a bounce back towards 51.00 at the end of the session. Pretty wild stuff, so caution is warranted. The rising trend support is at 49.40, so buying it ahead of that, with a SL placed just under 49.00 may be a plan given that the dailies do still hint that we could be in for another squeeze to the topside. Resistance is now seen at 52.35 and then at 53.40 (100 DMA) and at the current trend high at 54.15. If seen this could prove pivotal. Either we would see another rejection for more downside action or a break above it, in which case WTI could head on towards the Jan 2 high at 55.05, a break of which would hint at a run to the 23.6% of 107.44/42.01 at 57.20.

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