Indices/Commodities Outlook

 

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2039 Equity markets were shaken today by a halt in New York Stock Exchange trading due to technical difficulties, the crash in Chinese stocks and ongoing concerns over the future of Greece, with the S+P heading back to finish just above the important support at 2033. A break of this, which at some stage seems likely, – possibly today if we see a repeat of yesterday once the Chinese markets open, – would see a run towards the Fibo support at 2010 (38.2% of 1813/2033). A break of this would then head to 2000 and on to the major rising trend support at 1990. Under, (unlikely at this stage) here could get a bit ugly, with not too much to hold it ahead of Dec/Jan lows at around 1968/73. The topside will again see sellers at the 200 DMA at 2050 and then at 2070/75. From the look of the charts we are in for another move lower, but it will likely be the direction of China that drives sentiment in all markets, today.
DJI 17439 Ditto S+P. The DJI fell hard from 17680 to a low of 17400, finishing just above the lows. Further losses look very possible, with the targets being at the strong support at 17353 (38.2% of 16326/18333) and then eventually at 17280 (76.4% of 16962/18333) and break of which would then open the way to the major rising trend support, currently at around 17060. The topside will find sellers at 17500 and again within the consolidation area above here and on towards 17700.  Selling rallies seems to be the plan.
ASX SPI 5370 The SPI did not like what was happening in China and fell sharply from a high of 5508 to finish the day just above the low of 5362. It has been a rather wild ride in recent sessions and more of the same would appear likely, but with the downside seemingly the one to watch. Below 5360, good support lies at around 5328 (30 June low) and then at 5315  (76.4% of 5103/6008). A break would head to 5300, and below, with not too much to hold it until the 16 Jan low at 5213.The topside will see sellers at 5400/20, where today would seem a good level to sell it – if we see it, which I doubt. If wrong, further gains would take it to 5455 (200 HMA). Keep stops on shorts above here.
GOLD 1158 Gold had a choppy 1147/64 range, before finishing the day unchanged at 1157. The 4 hour charts look mildly positive, but the dailies are building downside momentum and it would appear that further losses towards 1143 (17 March low) and then at 1132 (7 Nov ’14 low) may lie ahead. The topside will see sellers at the session high, at 1164, and again at 1175 and then at 1190 and 1200, although this is looking increasingly distant. Further out, a downside break of 1130 would suggest a steeper decline, towards 1085 (50% of 253/1921).
SILVER 15.11 Silver had a choppy 14.77/15.27 range today, finishing just above 15.00. As with Gold, while the short term charts look a bit more positive the dailies suggest that the downside will eventually come back into view, for a return to yesterday’s 14.68 low. Below here would open the way to the 1 Dec ’14 low at 14.41 and then possibly towards the 200 MMA (14.15) and eventually to the major rising trend support at 13.00. The topside will find sellers at 15.30 and again at 15.50. Further offers would arrive at 15.75/85 ahead of 16.00. Selling into strength is again favoured, on the back of a view of a strengthening dollar, but with a tight SL placed above 16.00
OIL(WTI) 52.78 WTI had an inside day, trading a range of 50.89/52.95, allowing the 4 hour charts to partially recover from their oversold condition. More of the same looks possible, but the dailies suggest that eventually WTI will head lower, for a test of the previous day’s low of 50.55 and 50.00 (49.85: 61.8% of 42.02/62.55). Under here would hint at a steeper decline towards 47.85 and possibly to 46.80 (76.4% of 42.02/62.55 ). The topside will see sellers at 52.80 and again at 53.40. Selling rallies seems to be the plan.

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