JPMorgan researchers said on Tuesday that Britain’s referendum on European Union membership in two days was too close to call.
“We will go into the vote without high confidence in predicting the outturn in either direction,” JPMorgan researcher Malcolm Barr said in a research note to clients titled “Brexit polling update: It’s close”.
While polls have painted a contradictory picture of public opinion ahead of Thursday’s vote, betting odds have consistently indicated a high probability of a vote to remain.
Betting odds on Tuesday indicated a 75 percent probability of a Remain vote, according to Betfair.
“In our view, the sub-30 percent odds of an exit vote being implied by betting markets, for example, are placing more weight than we would on the accuracy of the polling and the magnitude of a status quo bias effect,” JPMorgan said.
Source: Reuters