Price action across many charts shows consolidation ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. This environment isn’t suitable to my longer-term trend trading but I’m watching trend lines for any breakout action with FOMC. There is also GBP Employment Data and the Annual Budget Release, CAD Manufacturing and US Building Permit, Crude Oil Inventory and CPI data to navigate in the coming session. The focus will be on the US$ and risk sentiment though to see how both of these react to FOMC.
USDX daily: consolidating in a triangle ahead of FOMC.
S&P500 daily: holding above 2,000 ahead of FOMC:
Gold 4hr: choppy ahead of FOMC. Any US$ weakness could help support the metal BUT if stocks pick up favour then this commodity could left behind. Tricky here now! US$ strength could see this metal head down to test major support near $1,145/50:
Oil daily: holding below the 50% fib stil for now:
Forex:
EUR/USD 4hr: chopping sideways within a daily triangle ahead of FOMC. Note the clamping Bollinger bands reflecting that liquidity is drying up ahead of this big news item:
NZD/USD: this pair has broken below a recent support trend line following last night’s poor dairy auction result. Watch to see how this pair reacts to FOMC but, also, keep an eye on the lower wedge trend line. The monthly chart shows this pair as either attempting a bullish trend line breakout OR consolidating within a wedge for a potential Bear Flag move.
NZD/USD 4hr: recent support was broken overnight with the weaker than expected GDT Price index data:
NZD/USD daily: no clear pattern here other than choppy but watch for any push down to the bottom wedge trend line:
NZD/USD weekly:
NZD/USD monthly: a bullish trend line breakout OR a developing Bear Flag? Watch the wedge trend lines for clues:
EUR/NZD: I haven’t posted about this pair for a while because it has been choppy following the major monthly chart wedge breakout some time ago. I had suggested watching this monthly chart back at the beginning of 2015 for any bullish bounce and we got it in spades….in the order of 4,500 pips! The EUR/NZD is shaping up with interest again though as the EUR$ tends to hold but the NZD$ weakens. Whether this trend direction continues remains to be seen but there are some trend lines worth watching here in case this pair starts on another major move! Price is just above the major S/R level of 1.675 and this seems to be the level to watch in coming sessions.
EUR/NZD 4hr: testing up near a weekly-chart bear trend line:
EUR/NZD daily: an obvious consolidation triangle is developing here. Whether any breakout is bullish or bearish remains to be seen but you’ve got trend lines to watch:
EUR/NZD weekly: consolidation after the previous major breakout:
EUR/NZD monthly: I suggested back in early 2015 to watch this pair for any bounce and……. we sure got it! Price action is currently just above the major monthly S/R level of 1.675. This might seem a random number but check out the monthly chart below to see how price has reacted at this region:
A/U 4hr: down but holding above 0.74 for now but FOMC could shift this. A waiting game for now:
AUD/NZD monthly: this chart is speaking volumes to me.
A/J 4hr: pulling back still for now and 80 remains the ‘line in the sand’ level for this pair:
GBP/USD 4hr: Brexit concern has picked up again putting pressure back on this pair:
GBP/NZD: this pair is testing a daily-chart bear trend line that is also worth watching:
G/N 4hr:
G/N daily: watch for any clear make or break of this trend line:
GBP/AUD: this is trading with a descending wedge after previously breaking down from a descending trading channel. This is generally a bullish pattern but I’m not so sure with Brexit concern:
G/A 4hr: watch the wedge trend lines for any breakout; up or down!
G/A daily: lower lows and lower highs for now which is bearish, but, watch the wedge trend lines:
EUR/AUD: also testing up at a bear trend line that is worth watching:
E/A 4hr: watch for any make or break activity:
E/A daily: a larger triangle is in play here:
EUR/GBP weekly: this large tech pattern is still going:
USD/CAD: the USD/CAD is also in a bullish descending wedge and this is poised just above a major support trend line. Watch trend lines for any make or break activity here too:
USD/CAD 4hr: a bullish descending wedge? Maybe…especially if they hike with FOMC:
USD/CAD daily: conversely, a ‘no hike’ and dovish US$ result with FOMC might see this support trend line tested. Lots to watch here!
U/J 4hr: not a huge reaction to yesterday’s BoJ news but watch with FOMC:
GBP/JPY 4hr: not much to enthuse here either:
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