MS : Month End Rebalancing – FXWW Chatroom

The Month End Rebalancing Model is giving some very significant signals this month, both for the month end and quarter end. These are some of the strongest signals seen since the middle of last year. The equity markets are giving the largest signals, for both month and quarter end, with the other asset classes also giving consistent signals. Taken together these suggests potential for some significant month end rebalancing related moves.On the bullish side of the equation it is the CAD which once again stands out as providing the strongest positive signals. These are broad based across the asset classes. Positive signals are being given for both month and quarter end. However, it is on the bearish side that the most significant signals are being triggered. The JPY is giving extremely negative signals for both the month and quarter end. The EUR and GBP are also giving bearish signals for month end. However, for GBP, the negative month end signal is offset to a certain degree by a positive quarter end signal. EUR on the other hand, is giving the most bearish quarter end signal among the G10 currencies. We would also put increased emphasis on the EUR bearish signal given the evidence of increased hedging activity since the beginning of the year.Taking these signals together suggest that CADJPY will gain some support going into month/quarter end, while EURCAD is likely to come under pressure. 

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