Risk off bias post CNY GDP, MS & with ECB to come

There has been a bit of a ‘risk off’ bias following the release of Chinese GDP which, although better than expected, was lower than the last release. The miss with Morgan Stanley earnings prior to US market open only added to the woes and this, along with concern about possible further easing being announced at Thursday’s ECB meeting, has seen the US$ make some gains, commodities pull back a bit and US stocks close fairly flat. The GBP/AUD, NZD/USD and GBP/NZD might be worth watching though given today’s GBP, AUD and NZD economic data.

USDX weekly: still Flag bound but a bit higher to start the week. The test will be to see if it can reclaim the 95.50 level:


S&P500 30 min: fairly choppy action:


S&P500 daily: still below the previously broken daily TL:


Gold weekly: global growth concern has resulted in a commodity pull back. I’m still thinking this might at least test the $1,150 or 41,145 level again, even if there is to be bullish continuation:


Forex: There is AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes during the Asian session and the a BoE Gov Carney speech, USD Building Permits and NZD GDT data.

E/U weekly: this is the pattern to keep in mind here ahead of this week’s ECB meeting:


E/J daily: keep watching here for any b/o with momentum:


A/U 4hr: a TL break in progress but price is in the 4hr Cloud. Watch for any impact from today’s AUD data:



A/J 4hr: still triangle bound. Watch for any impact from today’s AUD data:


Cable 4hr: holding near 1.55 ahead of tonight’s BoE Gov Carney speech and this seems to be the ‘line in the sand’ level to watch with the Carney speech:


Kiwi 4hr: I wrote yesterday how I was looking for any bullish breakout but it could be that we get a bearish break! If so, I’ll be looking for any Flag TL breakdown and test of the 50% Fib near the 4hr 200EMA. Watch for any impact from tonight’s NZD GDT price index data:


U/J 4hr: holding up but rather un-inspiring:


GBP/AUD: this has broken above the 4hr TL but without a new TC signal. It has also just closed above the 4hr Cloud. Watch for any impact here from today’s AUD data and tonight’s BoE Carney speech:

GA4 GA4hr Cloud

Will it now head to test the upper TL on the daily chart? If so, this is over 300 pips worth of movement! This is certainly one to watch with today’s GBP and AUD data!


GBP/NZD: price has slower after the previous TL break BUT is it just pulling back to test the key 2.30 level before more bearish continuation, as per the monthly chart triangle pattern? Watch for any impact here from tonight’s BoE Carney speech and NZD GDT Price Index data:

GNdaily GNmonthly

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