The Australian Dollar Is Trapped As Traders Fry Bigger Fish: By Greg McKenna

The Australian dollar is back at 79 cents this morning despite what looks like a mild bout of risk aversion in forex and markets globally. That recovery from the low 0.7880’s comes after metals reversed and pointed higher again.

So on balance while the overall range yesterday of less than 40 points is a very narrow one for the AUD/USD it remains fairly strong at 0.7904, just 150 points or so from the recent high.

And that’s easy to understand when you look at the strength of the Australian economy, the outperformance of mining and metals shares recently, and the performance of the global economy.



Just yesterday the latest state-o-meter from the ANZ (AX:ANZ) bank showed how that the Australian economy is doing well right now. The summary of the chart above is that in the June quarter economic activity in most states improved. That in turn pushed the national rate of growth back toward the trend level.

That’s the point the RBA has been making.

Likewise I saw some really positive news on the global economy via the Wall Street Journal overnight.

The journal reported that, “for the first time in a decade, the world’s major economies are growing in sync” and that “all 45 countries tracked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are on track to grow this year, and 33 of them are poised to accelerate from a year ago”.

Now I know you know we are seeing the big economies of the globe in sync because it’s something I’ve been writing about for some time. But I had no idea that the synchronisation was so widespread.

The OECD says it’s the first time since 2007 that all these countries are growing and the most countries in acceleration since 2010. Just check out the chart below.

That’s synchronised.



So even with a weak dollar you can see why metals, iron ore, the shares of mining companies, and the Aussie dollar have been well supported lately. It’s more than just futures punters on Chinese Metals exchanges.

It helps explain why the Aussie is doing better than the kiwi at the moment as well. New Zealand doesn’t have the same export exposures or global growth leverage that Australia does.

So this morning AUD/NZD is at 1.0940ish – the highest levels in 5 months or so. The uptrend is clear.



But the fact that NZD/JPY was hammered lower last night suggests the AUD/USD bulls still need to keep an eye on this emerging bout of risk aversion and the impact AUD/JPY selling could have if the Yen breaks the bottom of the USD/JPY range around 108.

Looking at the AUD/USD specifically there isn’t a lot to add from what I’ve been saying for a few days.

The outside parameters are 0.7800 and 0.8050/60. Shorter term many traders are watching the 0.7865/70. That’s where the trend line for this rally since below 74 cents currently sits.


Have a great day’s trading.


By Greg McKenna – Aug 24, 2017


Originally published by AxiTrader


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