US$ slide continues but support is nearby by Mary McNamara

Further weak US economic data has helped the US$ slide to continue. However, price is now resting at support and the next few sessions may help to determine whether this is just part of a corrective move higher OR a more decent pull back. This US$ weakness has helped risk currencies and Oil to make gains but US stocks remain choppy with earnings anxiety as do Silver and Gold.

USDX 4hr: The index has made a close below the key 61.8% fib which is bearish BUT price is currently finding some support from the 4hr 200 EMA. I’m now watching to see if the index will make a move down to the 95.50 level and close and hold below there. If so, I would be expecting this move to turn into more of a pull back. I’m just reading a comment that Fed officials are expressing concern over weak US data. This might result in a delay with any US interest rate hike and would then, most likely, support a deeper US$ pull back. There is US CPI data tonight and this could prove crucial to determining the next shift here:

EURX daily: still trying to carve out a ‘Double Bottom’:


Oil: the ‘Double Bottom’ breakout move continues!


S&P500 30 min: a choppy session. Stocks fell with the weak US data but then recovered:


S&P500 daily: I’m still on the lookout for any uptick with the Tenkan/Kijun lines here to endorse this bullish signal:


Silver: choppy but still above $16 support:


Gold: consolidating near key $1,200 S/R. I’m seeing a new triangle here:


TC Signal: This A/U signal is now up around 120 pips. There wasn’t too much more movement during the US session but that was only because the ATR was pretty well maxed out by then. I’ve got my take profit target set at the top of the recent trading range. Continued US$ weakness could help this pair to continue higher though:

A/U 4hr:


A/U daily:


Other FX: Watch for reaction to tonight’s US CPI and Consumer Sentiment, GBP Unemployment data and CAD CPI & Retail Sales data.

E/U 4hr: the 61.8% fib and 4hr 200 EMA could prove difficult for the E/U to conquer BUT, if it does, there could be some decent follow through. Much will depend on which way the US$ heads from here:


E/J 4hr: a similar story here but watch for the combined effect of the 78.6% fib, monthly pivot and 24hr 200 EMA:


A/J 4hr: the H&S is looking less likely:


Cable: watch the 1.50 level with tonight’s GBP Employment data. A positive data print here could help the Cable to break up through this resistance:


Kiwi: the triangle breakout continues BUT the 0.77 level is resistance for now. Watch for US CPI data as a miss here could help lift the Kiwi above this resistance: 


U/J 4hr: hovering above trend line and 118.5 support:


U/J daily: this trend line might come under pressure if there is further weakness in any of tonight’s US data:


Loonie: the recovery with Oil and weaker US$ is helping this wedge breakdown to continue:




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