The USD has fallen further since I last posted but FX remains choppy ahead of tonight’s key ECB and SNB data/news and USD retail sales & unemployment data. The USD index has fallen to test a 6 week trend line but this is supporting price for the time being.
USDX: the 89 and 88.50 levels have given way and the heavy lifting is now up to the recent support trend line:
EURX daily: holding up well as the USD weakens:
TC Signals: the A/J has gone on to give up to 220 pips and there is a new signal on the EUR/GBP BUT this comes with a caveat too!
A/J: a bit choppy following the AUD employment data but still open for now. Has given 200 pips from the break of the 100 level. I’m still thinking that 96 could be a target here:
EUR/GBP: this gave a new TC signal this morning BUT hasn’t made a convincing triangle break just yet. There is MAJOR ECB news tonight and I’d be waiting until after that anyway:
Other FX:
E/U: this has closed up and out of the 6 month descending trading channel but ECB news tonight might alter the landscape here. Any close and hold back above 1.25 would be bullish though.
E/U 4hr:
E/U monthly: there is trend line support below current price but a break and hold below the triangle trend line and then the 1.18 level would suggest the start of a bearish triangle move worth over 4,000 pips!
E/J: I had mentioned yesterday that this looked like a possible bearish ascending wedge. There has already been a 100 pip move lower from the wedge breakdown:
A/U: the slide here has slowed with some upbeat AUD employment data and the falling USD:
Cable: getting VERY interesting. It is back near that 61.8% fib level that I keep going on about BUT, also, back near the upper trend line from the bullish descending wedge. Worth keeping an eye on!
Kiwi: I wrote earlier in the week about how there hasn’t been a weekly close below 0.77 for around two years and this week may prove no different.
U/J: is getting some support from the 23.6% fib of the recent bull run:
Swissie: I had mentioned that this also had the look of a bearish descending wedge as well as the ‘Handle’ of a possible bullish Cup ‘n’ Handle. Maybe the bearish wedge will win here BUT there is a lot of USD and CHF data to get through tonight before deciding:
Loonie: has been choppy due to combined USD and CAD weakness. There is high impact news for both the US and CAD tonight though:
Silver: this continues to chop up towards the major monthly chart bear trend line. There is a trading channel on the 30 min chart worth watching:
Silver 30 min: watch the channel trend lines:
Silver daily: a major bear trend line is looming:
Silver daily Cloud: watch for any new close above the daily Cloud:
Gold: a trading channel here worth watching too:
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