This week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna (Wed) is a key focus.
USD: NFP may not mean anything, as markets are fully discounting a rate hike on the 14th. Markets will also have an eye on how holiday sales performed with Thanksgiving week, Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. Governors Powell and Brainard both speak, and so does NY Fed President Dudley and Dallas Fed President Kaplan. Datawise, we will have Consumer Spending and ISM Manufacturing.
EUR: Italian Referendum is here, but it’s much less important or influential than Brexit or Trump. The fear is that a “NO” would only add more political risk to the future of the EU – but in reality it’s small change compared to the structural imbalances that exist amongst EU members. In the broader picture, Renzi or Grillo don’t matter for Italy. Italy has too many problems that require a much more drastic approach. We will be seeing German and French elections early next year, the UK’s Article 50 application to withdraw from the EU is pending, and Austria will also hold a presidential election on 4th December – where a far right candidate stands a good chance of winning. Datawise we will have CPI updates. Also, ECB’s Draghi will address the European Parliament’s Economy Committee (Mon)..
GBP: We will be seeing PMIs this week.
CAD: This week brings bank earnings, monetary policy signals and key data. BOC’s Poloz speaks on Monday evening. Headlines will hit the wires at 7:45pm ET. Fiscal Q4 and full year bank earnings will be a sizeable influence. GDP growth and jobs could offer conflicting signals on the health of the Canadian economy.
Asia: Chinese macro data (Thur) will be influential for global risk appetite.
My initial watchlist for this week is made up of Euro shorts (EurNzd, EurGbp), NzdJpy long, GbpCad long, Copper Long and then after Wednesday’s OPEC meeting we’ll see what direction Crude takes.