Themes for the Week:
– Japan is closed for the “silver week” holiday until Sep 23.
– The Fed is on hold for now: keep an eye on wage pressures & external developments (China & EM). Relatively quiet week datawise for the US. Upside in UsdJpy is capped with Fed on hold…and any external negative developments (EM?) could spur further selling in Jpy crosses.
– 4 FOMC members will be speaking this week; also, ECB members, Draghi, Praet, Couere and Weidmann are scheduled to speak this week. Jawboning to outweigh PMIs..unless of course we get negative prints on the IFO & Zew.
– Unless something else pops up, risk appetite this week will be focused on the Chinese Caixin Flash PMI manufacturing (which is expected to print 47.5 vs. 47.1 prior)…which is still a very low level expectation and reflects downside risk to Chinese growth. Equity markets & jpy pairs will be the most receptive. I prefer European equities (Dax/Eustoxx) to short, as opposed to US boards.
– The Greek legislative election should attract attention, but to a lesser extent than it did during the summer as Greece is again under a programme. Don’t expect Euro to be reactive on this.
– BoC Governor Poloz will be talking on Monday, so Loonie traders may have their day in the sun!
Charts in line with these themes: