US$: only small gains with Retail Sales so focus turns to FOMC

The USDX will print a bullish daily candle and the EURX a bearish one but the US$ has still failed to close back above the 95.50 S/R level and to make much gain out of the upbeat US Retail Sales data. The USDX is still range bound between 100 and 92.50 and so we now look to next week’s FOMC to, hopefully, dislodge the index from this channel.

FOMC is scheduled for next Wednesday and includes a Press Conference.

NB: I am away for this weekend and any updates will be brief.

USDX daily:  bullish on the day and may end up printing a bullish-reversal ‘Inverted Hammer’ candle so watch for potential further recovery here. I am surprised though that it didn’t make more of a recovery following the Retail Sales data:


USDX 4hr: has failed to close back above the 95.50 which has been a strong S/R region of late:


EURX daily: down on the day as the Greece situation still hangs and the index is struggling within its own range…a triangle.


EURX 4hr Cloud: price is back into the Cloud and, although the USDX is still below the Cloud on the 4hr and daily time frame, this change on the EURX ends this period of FX index alignment. This recent period has been short lived and whilst it delivered many pips last week the pips have been much fewer this week.


S&P500 daily: watch for any bullish wedge breakout and new Tenkan/Kijun cross:


Silver 4hr: still clinging to $16 support:


Gold 4hr: still clinging to $1,180 support:


TC Signals: The Cable is still open, the E/U has closed but there has been a new signal on the GBP/JPY.

Cable: this is still open despite a bit of a pullback overnight:


E/U: this signal has closed off without giving many pips. It may be best to wait until there is a clear breakout from the triangle pattern:

E/U 4hr: choppy but the EURX is back in the Cloud on the 4hr chart and so EUR based trades may be choppy from now:


E/U daily: might be best to wait for a triangle breakout that evolves with momentum:


GBP/JPY 4hr: this has given a new TC long signal and triggered a bullish wedge breakout:


Other FX:

E/J 4hr: watch for any wedge breakout with momentu, as per the G/J:


A/U 4hr: struggling under the 4hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot. Any break up through this resistance would be bullish though:


A/J daily: I would prefer to see a daily chart breakout along with momentum here:


Kiwi 4hr: this fell following the RBNZ rate cut but hasn’t fallen too much further. That green line is the weekly 200 EMA and it’s doing a decent job of support for now:


U/J 4hr: didn’t gain much after the upbeat US Retail Sales data:


EUR/NZD: this rallied after the RBNZ rate cut but did not trigger a new TC signal and hasn’t moved too much further. This does mark the start of a significant bullish monthly wedge breakout though:

E/N 4hr:


E/N monthly: a major bullish wedge breakout evolving:


GBP/AUD: still choppy around the 2.0 level:


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